driving without driving (driverless cars)

Well.

Hate to break the news to all you drivers, who like driving, out there but a driverless car is definitely on its way. Why <part 1>? It isn’t about driving its about people (I’ll explain throughout). Why <part 2>? Involved  people say so:

–     Thilo Koslowski, an analyst at Gartner, a market-research firm, predicts that such vehicles will be on sale within eight years.

–     Erik Coelingh, a senior engineer for “driver support” systems at Volvo, a Swedish carmaker, predicts it will take at least ten.

–     Bruce McTague, a schlub with a blog, predicts it will be successful as soon as an affordable vehicle is produced <whether that be 3 years, 8 years or 15 years>.

Regardless. I believe driverless cars will be the major transportation infrastructure upgrade within our generation.

Why?

Driverless cars promise to reduce road accidents and ease congestion and most importantly? We can do other shit while the car is driving itself. That alone may make it feasible.

Ah.

You doubt me. You doubt me because us old folk just can’t imagine it.

Ponder this recent survey:

Nearly 60% of Vermont high school seniors text or email while driving, according to 2013 health risk reports released Thursday by the state Department of Health. This was the first year that the health department assessed texting and driving behavior in students as part of its Youth Risk Behavior Survey. More than 33% of high school students and more than 56% of high school seniors reported texting or emailing while driving in the last 30 days.

By the way, while Vermont itself is an anomaly, I do not believe the results are an anomaly. After shaking your head at the irresponsibility and stupidity of our youth begin thinking bigger picture. Bigger picture in that our young people would rather be doing something other than driving.

They don’t give a shit about driving. They give a shit about communicating and doing and participating. Driverless cars isn’t about driving its about people.

Now. Research <and common sense> notes driving safely requires a vehicle operator’s full focus.

In the future … we will all be safer if we take the wheel out of the hands of people who would rather be doing something else.

Ok. Driverless cars would provide further benefits beyond safety. They could co-ordinate their routes and travel in close formation, increasing the capacity of road networks, reducing congestion and saving fuel. They could also drop someone off and then go and park themselves.

They may even encourage more widespread car-sharing, with vehicles dispatched on demand to people who need them, rather than spending most of the day sitting idle by the side of the road. And, supposedly, they would do away with the stress of driving, allowing their occupants to read, browse the internet or take a nap.

<well … that sounds crazy doesn’t it? … and a little scary>

So. The idea of self-driving cars as a means of reducing accidents and congestion has been around for a long time. One of the most popular exhibits at the 1939 New York World’s Fair was ‘Futurama’ which was a depiction of a city with cars remotely controlled by radio. In the 1980s and 1990s the European Commission sponsored a program of research on automated driving. In the mid-2000s the Pentagon’s research agency, DARPA, launched its Grand Challenges, offering prizes to driverless cars that did best at navigating a tricky course.

–          In the first of these, in 2004, none of the robot cars completed the course.

–          In the third, held in 2007, six cars made it.

<laugh if you want … but that is called ‘progress’>

Ah. But think about this.

Even before the full vehicle prototypes have proven themselves aspects of ‘driverless technology’ are being incorporated in the here and now as features in existing cars <under the guise of “assisted driving” features>.

How about cruise control?

Or European buyers of the Ford Focus can now leave it to drive itself and maintain a safe distance in steady traffic. The same car can measure a parking space and steer itself into it. It scans/reads road signs and warns drivers if they break the speed limit. The point is all these different features are increasingly making decisions on the driver’s behalf < a nice feature is the one that overrules the driver in an emergency by automatically braking to avoid a crash>.

There you go.

The problem is actually not going to be the technology. Problem one is while the technology is nearing readiness but questions of regulation and liability will hold everything back.

–          Three American states, Nevada, California and Florida, have passed laws governing the testing of driverless cars on public roads, which had previously been a legal grey area. But that is just the start. Decades of road-safety legislation will have to be overturned before cars can roam the streets without a qualified and sober driver at the controls, and accidents involving driverless cars are bound to attract some lawsuits.

Problem two is gonna be … well … us.

What is in our heads. How we think.

Let’s call it ‘the control factor.’ Because most of us like to be in control of shit <even beyond driving>.

All the technical aspects aside <I will let some schlub with an engineering blog tell us the hows and whys of the engineering and technology> here is why I believe consumers <drivers … or … what the heck do we get called if we don’t drive but own the car and plan the drive? … yikes … someone is gonna get paid a boatload of money coming up with that name> will be attracted to this despite the lack of control issues <which will be a big self control challenge>. Think about it. Beyond the youth research people are already increasingly taking advantage of a growing world of no-frills easy airlines, always-on phones, affordable hotels, last-minute/find-and-seek websites, and so on.

Trendwatchng.com calls this behavior of acting on a whim ‘planned spontaneity.’ This is making spontaneous decisions to go somewhere or do something is becoming the norm … but while planning it <figure out that contradiction>.

Well. If you take this trend with the interconnectedness of a much larger web of instant gratification options and services I suggest it will reveal some interesting insights into future behavior with regard to driverless driving.

Ok. To be clear. Planned spontaneity.

Think about low fare airlines. <sales statistics from Site59, an industry leader in last minute technology and content, show that 58.3% of consumers book within three days of traveling. 4.8% of consumers book and travel on the same day, 21.2% of people book one day in advance, 18.1% book 2 days in advance, and 14.2% book 3 days in advance of traveling>In the interest of clarity, I have listed the laws of planned spontaneity below <I lost the source for them>.

Note that these are not laws in the “thou shalt not” or “thou shalt” sense.  The word “should” and “must” do not appear in the laws.  These laws are observations about how things work. We cannot talk about breaking any of these laws any more than we can talk about breaking the law of gravity.

–          Law #1: In a controlled environment <such as a chess game> there is no strategy as good as careful planning.

–          Law #1a: In an unpredictable environment careful planning is not nearly as good as spontaneity. 

–          Law #2: Pure spontaneity does not work. 

–          Law #3: Luck is planned resourcing for spontaneity. 

–          Law #4: Structure and efficiency work to destroy the resources for spontaneity. 

Ok. So how the hell is this relevant to driverless cars? Driverless is the ultimate planned spontaneity.

Every day.

Every minute.

Every mile.

Getting in the car and ‘going’ takes on a completely new perspective. A driverless world takes out the randomness of ‘unplanned inconveniences’ and incorporates a consistency where we have the ability to maximize other things. It is all ‘maximization’ of self directed value.

More time to do <what we want or need to do>.

More time to be spontaneous <of things we want to do>.

More time to plan <things we want to do>.

I imagine that is where I end on why I believe driverless cars are inevitable.

It will give us more time to do things that please us. It will certainly give young people more of what they want even now.

I cannot think of a better consumer benefit than that.

Buckle up.

Driverless cars are inevitable.