head scratching numbers (and American voting)

confused

“99 percent of all statistics only tell 49 percent of the story.”

=

Ron DeLegge

—-

 

“Figures often beguile me particularly when I have the arranging of them myself.”

 

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

=

Mark Twain

 

Just a quick note on the recent USA midterm elections, the silent majority <which was a huge majority and the silence deafening> and some head scratching numbers.

 

People, including me, will dizzy and dazzle you with a variety of numbers and statistics all under the guise of ‘the people have spoken’ <hear me roar!!> in the American midterm elections.

 

Oops.

No roar.

Just the never ending screech of the few and the shouting.

 

About 37% of those who could vote voted.

 

<uhm part 1 … that means 2/3rds of people DID NOT VOTE>

<uhm part 2 … that means 1/3rd of all voting adults made a country decision>

<uhm part 3 … that means, assuming about 53% of the vote went to the ‘winners’ .. that means 18% of the adult population has suggested a direction for the 100%>

vote hands

 

Of those who voted the significant majority were the hard core <either an unchangeable democrat or an unchangeable republican> as well as:

 

–          Primarily old & white

–          Significantly less likely to be young or a minority

–          And not independent <intent to vote plummeted among independents>

 

–          the numbers  –

 

–          Whites accounted for 75% of voters, up from 72%, a record low, in 2012.

–          Nonwhites accounted for 25% of voters, down from 28%, a record high, in 2012.

–          Millennials <Voters age 18-29> made up just 12% of voters — down from 19% in 2012.

–          Older voters <age 65+> made up 26% of voters, up significantly from 17% in 2012.

—-

 

Anyway.

 

Let me take a minute to comment on the results and the deafening silence from the ‘people’ <who every headline shouts ‘have spoken’>..

 

 

First.

 

We Americans are consistent.

 

This is nothing new.

 

All second term Presidents since 1822 have gone through this voter discontent <both Democratic and Republican Presidents>.

Every second term President but one <Clinton> their party has lost in the midterms. The losers include Ronald Reagan, Dwight Eisenhower and Franklin Roosevelt.

 

To make this – slightly odd continuing diatribe from a loud minority – about the current President is simply not true.

It is voting history since 1822.

 

 

Second.

 

Style versus substance.

confuse minority

The midterm election has provided fantastically, sometimes absurd and always annoying, political theater but failed to create any interest to the general population … and particularly of the unaffiliated independents <although even the core party attention declined a bit>.

 

 

To me …I can think of 3 reasons:

 

–          believe the outcome will change nothing.

Even with Republicans winning the Senate and holding the House .. Congress has been so dysfunctional internally it is difficult to envision palatable change.

 

 

–          lack of a galvanizing issue for either party.

 

Republicans didn’t run against their opponents … they simply ran against Obama. This is incredibly odd in that the approval ratings for the president, while low, are not even close to the depths of poor approval the congress has.

And then Democrats ran against their opponents without showcasing any policies but rather tried to diminish their opponents.

There were no real issues discussed … certainly not a passionate galvanizing one.

 

–          A lack of a popular figurehead for either party driving their base to the polls.

 

The President has low approval ratings.

Oh. But neither party leader in Congress is popular nationally, or among his own party base.

voting apathyNobody cared because they didn’t like anybody.

 

 

Third.

It ain’t the president … people are just unhappy with politicians.

 

 

Some statistics:

 

–          According to a voters’ exit poll, 80% of Americans disapprove of how Congress has been handling its job, while about 58% are displeased with President Obama.

A whopping <said sarcastically> 44% have a positive view of Democrats and 40% have a positive view of Republicans.

 

Doh.doh homer

 

Americans have just elected the party they like the least to run the government body they least trust.

 

 

–          34% of voters expressed that they were voting in opposition of President Obama and yet 61% expressed that they were dissatisfied or even angry with the Republican leaders in Congress.

<someone figure the logic out on how Republicans won seats>

 

In addition.

 

This was a qualitative vote <an ‘I feel’ vote> and not a quantitative vote <an ‘economy/wallet’ vote>.

 

–          45% say the economy is the most important issue in their vote. That’s down from 2012 when 59% chose it and 2010, and 2008, when 63% said it was their top issue.

 

 

All in all this election showed America nothing.

 

Think about it.

 

Just two in 10 voters trust the government in Washington to do what’s right all or most of the time.

 

 

This basically translates into:

Democrats think Republicans are screwing things up.

Republicans think Democrats are screwing things up.

Independents just think it is all screwed up.

 

vote no

And how screwed up is it?

 

This spring, a study by professors at Princeton and Northwestern reported that voters’ preferences were essentially irrelevant in determining what policies their elected officials pursued.

 

In addition about $3.67bn was spent in this election … and most of it by a tiny fraction of wealthy interests.

 

Money buys what it wants.

<sigh>

 

The combination of big money from an elite group of influencers in combination with a low voter turnout means that fewer average Americans are electing the nation’s leaders.

 

The corollary, of course, is that those who can write big checks have gained greater influence.

 

Regardless.

 

All of this just makes me shake my head in dismay and … well … worry <just a little>.

 

A healthy voter turnout is fundamental to a healthy democracy.

Low turnout is usually attributed to a belief that voting for one candidate/party or another will do little to affect public policy.

 

And America’s overall voting record sucks:

“Voter turnout in the United States fluctuates in national elections, but has never risen to levels of most other well-established democracies.

In countries with compulsory voting, like Australia, Belgium, and Chile, voter turnout hovered near 90% in the 2000s.

Other countries, like Austria, Sweden, and Italy, experienced turnout rates near 80%. Overall, OECD countries experience turnout rates of about 70%, while in the U.S., about 60% of the voting eligible population votes during presidential election years, and about 40% votes during midterm elections.”

 

FairVote

 

I admit.

 

america map drawnI waffle on the voter turnout discussion.

 

I blame voters for not actually voting to clearly communicate what they want.

 

I blame politicians for building an environment where the people don’t perceive, they actually believe, Congress is dysfunctional and cannot get anything done let alone a ‘right thing.’

 

I blame people in general as we waffle between the disappointment that government <the president in particular> doesn’t lead and yet when government <the president> does lead and make decisions we shout ‘unconstitutional & power hungry.’

 

I blame myself because … well … I am a solutions guy and I cannot see a clear solution.

 

Anyway.

The bottom line.

 

People bitch.

People moan.

 

But they mostly do so silently.

In private or on a bar stool.

 

This election changes nothing excepting maybe there are now different people who will talk about doing a lot and actually doing little.

 

Yesterday old white people won more seats in government.

This suggests more old thinking.

 

Oh.

 

And here may be the biggest head scratching number.

 

As Republicans puff out their chests and shout there is a new world order and ‘the people have been heard’ … all exit polls clearly pointed out that when asked who would most likely <and preferred> to be our next president … Hilary Clinton <a democrat I may point out> was almost double her closest Republican mention.

 

Huh?

Republicans dominate the votes <ok … not dominate … just had a majority> yet indicate a Democrat as next preferred president?sigh hand

 

Someone smarter than I needs to figure that one out.

 

In the end?

 

Well.

That was all truly inspiring to write & thin about <not so much>.

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Written by Bruce