if you liked this you may want to do this (why past behavior doesn’t predict future behavior)

 

Ok. Today I take on the quasi-pervasive myth of ‘the best predictor of someone’s future behavior is their past behavior’ <which is actually not really true> and how to actually ‘predict’ some behavior <yet do so without invading someone’s privacy>.

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Psychological scientists who study human behavior agree that past behavior is a useful marker for future behavior. But …. only under certain specific conditions:

1. High-frequency, habitual behaviors are more predictive than infrequent behaviors.

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2. Predictions work best over short time intervals.

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3. The anticipated situation must be essentially the same as the past situation that activated the behavior.

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4. The behavior must not have been extinguished by corrective or negative feedback.

behavior figuring it out—-

5. The person must remain essentially unchanged.

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6. The person must be fairly consistent in his or her behaviors.

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Well. That is certainly a list that filters a shitload of people OUT of past behavior predicting future behavior <how many of us have not changed ?>.

Projecting behavior, secrets and personal privacy in a transparent online world is a complex discussion. Oh. And it is also a formula that doesn’t quite add up to me: sharing a secret + seeking advice on what to do <personal behavior> does not equal personal privacy. In fact, it almost presumes shared privacy & sharing secrets <albeit with some limits I would assume> in order to receive the desired projected behavior tips & suggestions.
In other words, I cannot get something without giving something.

That said. I did not mistype the headline.

I imagine all of us have shopped online or read an article online where the website has a nifty feature which says something like “you may also like” or “if you bought this you may like” tips.

Well. Some smart writers came up with that wording because the technology <algorithms> behind all the analysis that allows the suggestions to occur is really saying to you “if you liked this you may want to DO this.”
Please note as I discuss this topic while technology has changed a shitload of things, technology is simply a facilitator <sorry … it is not evil in and of itself>. It is the deliverer of the real game changer — behavioral analysis.

Now. Behavioral analysis can quickly get abused in that if we people do not think for ourselves and assess the information and ‘guidance’ we receive, we simply become sheep to technology herders.

I shared that ‘sheep’ thought because there is something called life-logging <a wearable or portable technology> that not only tracks us and what we do and where we go, but it can quasi-predict your next ‘expected’ move. It actually predicts and encourages your next move as well as provides a personal stream of information of your life <hence the name ‘life-logging>.

Yup. This is the technology version of “if you did this then you really want to do this.”

I believe there are several options available now but I am going to highlight Saga <no longer in existence> because I liked the way they crafted and wrote their site information:

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behavior predict lots peopleSaga automatically records your real life story, as told by the places you visited and the things you’ve done. We all have a great story to tell. Let Saga tell yours. Remember Everything. Life is short. Capture every moment, even the little ones, in your lifelog. Learn about your habits and set meaningful goals with the insight you gain. the apps integrate with services including Twitter, Foursquare, and Instagram, enabling users to pool and manage their own personal data. Narrato provides users with a “lifestream” so that information is available in one place and exportable for users to manage and save, creating an extremely rich picture of the user’s activities. 

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In doing some background research I have noted that lifelogging apps do everything in their power to suggest they are not stalkers or creepy. They talk about personal empowerment, ‘giving power to the user’, and that personal data is managed safely in their own personal cloud.

Ok. Before I tell you how it works. Let me move to ‘secrets’ for a moment which, by the way, is a version of security <or personal privacy>.

Lets face it. Like it or not <and boy oh boy older people do NOT like it> in a technology world secrets will be, well, fleeting.

no_secretIn fact I sense the only way to keep a secret is to not place it anywhere in or on technology <in fact I just saw an article where Germany is suggesting using typewriters again solely to combat spying>.

Now. Before anyone goes ape shit on privacy and such … keeping secrets has never been easy.

In fact. People have always sucked at keeping secrets. Thinking that technology is ‘infringing upon things that are ours’ is archaic thinking <at least to some degree>. I am not absolving technology for having some moral & ethical guidelines, but let’s be realistic.

Anything comes with a price tag. Everything is a tradeoff. Ponder that as we shout about <secrecy & privacy>.

Uhm. We also seem to want ‘if you liked this you may like this.’ Can’t have both folks.

Sorry. And it is gonna get tougher for all of us as ‘lifelogs’ slide into our lives.

That said. How do lifelog apps work <in this case Saga as my example>? They use the sensors on your smartphone to build your lifelog. It records the places you’ve visited and the trips you’ve taken without any input from you. All you have to do is go about your Life, living it, and the sensors tag along for the ride <recording & capturing everything>.

It’s certainly not perfect because it cannot always guess your location correctly <the first time around>, but ongoing action and behavior constantly improves the location algorithms. Saga actually does a nice job explain this aspect:

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There are a few reasons why Saga could get your location wrong.

The Problem: Your current location isn’t in our database.
While Saga knows millions of places worldwide, chances are pretty good that your home, work, or favorite bench may not be in our database.

The Fix: It’s easy to add new places to Saga in the Change Place screen. And once you do, Saga should have no problem following you to all the places you go on a regular basis.

The Problem: You may have a bad GPS fix.
It happens. While GPS satellites are amazing, there are times that they’re just not accurate enough to figure out that you’re at the coffee shop and not the burger joint down the block.

The Fix: Buy yourself a personal GPS satellite. Or invest in a portable cell tower. Or just wait for a few minutes until you get a better connection. Saga will deal.

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The Problem: You’re at a new or obscure spot.
Saga can get confused if you go to a really obscure place. Especially if that really amazing, but unusual bar is right next to a super popular restaurant, shop, or landmark. When Saga can’t decide between two nearby places, it’ll often predict that you’re at the more popular place — just to be safe.

The Fix: Tell Saga where you really are. It’ll file that information away, and won’t make the same mistake twice. (Don’t worry, we won’t clue others into your secret little hideaway.)behavior deep thoughts

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But here is where lifelogging behavioral is genius.

Because it is pop psychology <hence not really true> that ‘past behavior is the best indicator of future behavior.’

Oops. That psychology is not so much a fact.

Sorry. The truth is that the situation more often dictates behavior rather than anything we may have done in the past <and we also accumulate knowledge and therefore adapt>.

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“Researchers have determined that the situation plays a critical role in behavior. The situation is often more determinative than individual character traits. Personality theorist Walter Mischel – frequently cited in connection with the “best predictor” maxim – suggests that behavioral consistency is best described through if-then relationships between situations and behaviors, as in: “She does A when X, but B when Y.” So, a person may engage in heavy drug use when in the company of drug-using peers, but may stop using when she moves away and gets a fulfilling job.

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This suggests lifelogging is genius. It can actually assist in managing some behavioral aspects at the prime time to do so, within context, situational context as a matter of fact. It can see past behavior, recent actions and movement behavior. It can predict by combining past behavior & situational context.

Ok. It cannot predict, but rather ‘smartly suggest.’

Anyway. While lifelogging sounds really cool <in one way> it also sounds quite ‘big brother-esque’ in another way. The app seeks patterns in human behavior recording how much time you spend going places and doing things. Based on this information the app then provides suggestions <and while we humans hate to admit it … we are quite susceptible to suggestions … uhm … particularly if they are based on past behavior>. Supposedly as we learn more about ourselves and what we do <behaviors> we would begin making decisions based on what they’ve learned about themselves and not what businesses are pushing down their throats.

I imagine we will all struggle a little bit on whether these apps predict things we would like to do or influence us in some way in ‘guiding’ us to some actions <this is a looped behavioral relationship difficult to discern beginning from end>.

As for the unequivocally good. There is a company called Geppetto Avatars which has developed a health care with virtual physician’s assistants <that quite feasibly could actually be smarter than any doctor in the world>. For example.

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In one of the company’s allergy applications, a sympathetic young doctor named Sophie talks you through air quality and the pollen index in your neighborhood. Then, she makes sure that you’re taking your prescriptions right. When you tell her you’re feeling really bad, she gives a gentle “mmm-hmmm,” to let you know she’s been there and wants nothing more than to help you feel better.

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Well.

behavior predict questionAfter reading that and thinking ‘no computer can replace a doctor’ … I would suggest to you that here is where we face the true dilemma. When it comes to raw data — computers are smarter than us. The wealth of wisdom housed on connected hard drives around the globe is simply more than a human brain can handle. Therefore <using medicine as an example> when you go to the doctor no matter how smart & good the doctor is you really only have access to a fraction of knowledge.

That said.

People will be quick to point out the infamous ‘human factor.’ This is the tried & true anti-technology point of view that computer programs have always lacked the ability to read body language, non-verbal cues, and all those parts of communication that make us human.

Uh oh. THAT is changing too. As with most of these interactive type applications, the more you use it, the better job it does at reading you — picking up whether your voice is hoarse or your breathing labored, or whether you sound worried or anxious. There are programs in development now <some actually in market> which are able to detect your mood, read your state of mind, and respond accordingly with one of its tens of thousands of recorded answers. Yes. There are limits and having worked with a telemedicine app I have seen the human/technology dynamic firsthand, but we would be silly to ignore the value of a technology augmenting human expertise/wisdom.

Whew. So these new apps can also share your information with anyone you choose — from a health care professionals to your favorite store. On the flip side, these apps also share your information with people you don’t choose <this is the seamy side of data gathering>.

This is our brave new world. Regardless. Like it or not giving some technology some information about us will make our world, and Life, better.

Ok. I say all this because there is a shit load of discussion going on about privacy. I actually suggest this is going to be a clash of generations. Older folk think ‘big brother’ and ‘invading my privacy’ <I will also note here that these are the same people who cannot understand how young people share everything on twitter, snapshot and any social media channel>.

On the other hand younger people think … “hmmmmmmmmm … convenience.” Gratification faster.

Look. We older people don’t get it. We are not only afraid of ‘having someone know too much’ but also don’t get that younger people are just more comfortable with sharing some things than we are. By the way I would also suggest to old folk that younger people certainly understand limits with regard to what they share.

Simply because they share things we cannot fathom ever sharing … they will protect their ‘important secrets’ as well as anyone older.We are going to just throw up roadblocks and bitch & moan about privacy and all the shit that old people bitch about as young people pass them by. If you liked this, you may want to consider this.

Behavioral tools are here to stay and will be used by everyone, well, everyone being anyone under the age of say 35 or so.

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originally posted July 2014

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Written by Bruce