Enlightened Conflict

North Korea and the art of the deal

April 18th, 2017

North Korean leader military

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“The most dangerous creation in the world, in any society, is the man with nothing to lose. “

 

 

—-

Al Freeman Jr.

 

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“When there is nothing to lose — Always leave a way out, unless you really want to find out how hard a man can fight when he’s nothing to lose.”

 

Robert Jordan

 

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Well.

 

I know I didn’t write the art of the deal <and I could not have written it> but it trump winning art of complainingsure does seem like we are going about trying to make a deal with North Korea in a slightly counter intuitive way.

I certainly have not negotiated Manhattan real estate deals and lucrative licensing deals but I do know something about human behavior, loyalty to habitual behavior and how people assess value to things they do … and what kind of value you need to offer to increase the likelihood in change of behavior.

 

Behavior 101:

I do know that if what you have is everything to you … you have nothing to lose to hold on to it with ragged claws.

 

 

Your current behavior, while seemingly incredibly irrational on occasion, is actually made up of an internal value assessment.

 

For example.

 

Increase sanctions and you actually increase the value of the only thing I have. For example … if you start taking all of my things, the one thing I have, my home, becomes more important to me – truly my castle — which I will defend until my last penny .

 

Increase the presence and power of your military & strength and while it may showcase that my military is smaller it increases the importance of the one thing I do have <my military strength>.

 

<note: I am not suggesting reminding someone you have a stronger punch doesn’t have some value … it just has a diminishing return in the deal valuation>

 

Increase your bluster and it actually increases the value in my bluster.

 

I say all that to point out that’s why the way this deal is so artfully, or inartfully, being done seems totally whack to me.

 

What would I be tempted to try?

 

Get them to switch. Offer something in return for giving up their current habit.

 

Make it so lucrative that they cannot pass on the deal <and you actually “buy the switch in products” — which consumer companies do all the time>.

 

Their military represents all their pride and country esteem. Think of it like some asshole guy owning a Mustang <with a disturbingly absurd personal relationship with it … probably has given it a name and a vanity plate>.

It’s powerful, muscular and masculine. It is also individual esteem based self actualization emblem.

 

Now you have a family.

 

We will ask you to ditch your beloved Mustang and … well … maybe now I want you to buy a large house in a prosperous neighborhood to showcase you are a powerful, responsible, muscular, successful man.

 

Okay.

Bad analogy.

self esteem maslow

 

But suffice it to say that I want them to trade their pride & self actualization/esteem in military to something else. In fact … I want to give it to them in one hand and take what they have back in the other hand.

 

Personally … I would offer them a viable economy and country infrastructure to sustain their population & culture as the deal.

 

Now.

 

To be clear.

We don’t want to westernize North Korea … how they govern is their choice … what their culture is … is … well … their choice. Therefore, we would have to seek to quickly build a viable North Korea economy based on what they want and what supports their governance and culture.

Yup.

This means we would have to suck it up and try and stop pushing our values and our beliefs on them and … well … simply make the trade.

 

I imagine my point <for those who shudder at setting aside ‘our values’ in this deal making> would be is that prosperity tends to make people and cultures more free <or freer than they were before> so that the country becomes a more viable entity to interact with global economy and cultures.

We get a little of what we want in terms of ‘human rights progress’ but, most importantly, we wean North Korea off of military as their self actualization brand and replace it with something else <note: this means keep your eye on the real prize in the deal>.

 

Sure.

There would most likely have to be some additional “gives” in terms of military scale down on our side in the region to insure they trade what they have <this is where China can step up by signing an agreement with North Korea that they will militarily support North Korea should the need arise>. This also permits military emphasis to shift from North Korea to China which, while troubling in some ways, is a more palatable diplomacy challenge.

 

Look. The way Donald J. Trump is going about this may make some Americans feel ‘patriotically powerful’ but it sure doesn’t seem like the right way to go about making a deal.

 

We need to stop calling the leader of a country a crazy nutjob.

 

We need to stop threatening them with bluster.

 

We need to stop stating the obvious … that we have the most powerful military in the world and they don’t <because in this case it is simply semantics of degrees of death & destruction>.

 

north korea map provincesWe need to stop taking shit away from them <they aren’t some child who loses their allowance because they did something wrong>. We need to approach this deal as if it was a business marketing to someone that we wanted them to switch from a product they have been loyal to for years to some new product <some people call that “extreme change in behavior”>.

 

 

I would suggest to the smarter minds than I, trying to figure this out, that changing behavior is hard … and switching behavior may be even harder … but that is what you are seeking to do in this so-called ‘deal’ we are trying to impatiently reach with North Korea.

 

But.

 

What do I know?

I didn’t write the Art of the Deal.

 

What I do know is that America has really nothing to lose <excepting possibly Donald J Trump’s ego … which is a concern> and North Korea has everything to lose <in their eyes>. Paradoxically this means North Korea is being cornered and has … well … nothing to lose by doubling down on bluster, military self esteem posturing and … well … defending the only thing they have.

 

Pride, self esteem & all that Maslow stuff is really really powerful stuff.

Someone in this deal making needs to remember that this is less about military and nukes than it is all this other powerful stuff.

 

Sigh.

 

And they need to remember …

 

… unless you really want to find out how hard a man can fight when he’s nothing to lose

 

 

the Indian Wars Never Ended (and they are still getting screwed)

April 10th, 2017

do not use word i promise ligtly careful

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“We ask for nothing more, and will accept nothing less, than the U.S. government keeping the promises made to Native Americans.”

 

John E. Echohawk

NARF Executive Director

 

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“All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian.”

 

Pat Paulsen

 

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“To be continued.”

 

closing words on  Native American Rights Fund TV ad

 

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Well.

 

indian map of usaOne of the first pieces I ever wrote on Enlightened conflict was “200 years later the American Indian may be partially unscrewed.”

 

 

I thought of what I wrote back in 2009 because I just read an article suggesting that 50% … yeah … 50 fucking percent … of native American Indians are homeless.

 

… a Brooklyn-sized housing crisis has languished in the 617 American Indian and Alaska Native tribal areas and 526 surrounding counties where 2.5 million of this land’s first peoples live. There, Native men, women and children occupy the most severely overcrowded and rundown homes in the United States.

 

The 11,000 members of the Northern Arapaho in Wyoming, for example, share just 230 reservation homes. A staggering 55% are considered homeless because they’re couch surfing. In the Navajo Nation, 18,000 homes or roughly 40% of total Navajo housing stock lack electricity or running water.

 

In the twilight of the Obama administration, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) estimated that these forgotten communities urgently needed 68,000 new housing units – 33,000 to eliminate overcrowding and 35,000 to replace deteriorated stock. This is a number similar in scale to total new construction called for in New York’s current 10-year housing plan.

 

But while New York’s housing crisis has occupied headlines and led to a plan of action, the indigenous housing crisis has remained invisible. HUD’s study is the first and only in-depth report on the subject.

american indians 1 american indians 2 american indians 3 american indians 4 american indians 5

 

I could just point out that this is simply unconscionable for a fully developed country but then I would have to point out how little conscious we have shown as we have consistently screwed the native American Indians since we got here.

 

I could point out how easily this could be resolved compared to the ongoing seemingly unsolvable things like balancing the federal budget, climate change and national healthcare initiatives but we seem to like avoiding the solvable because it most likely seems to ‘small.’

 

I could even point out that while we spend incredible amounts of time discussing meaningful issues like livable wages, equal economic opportunities and helping lift people out of poverty it seems like we shouldn’t ignore what I would consider the most basic of basics for every citizen in the united states … food, water & shelter.

 

This is crazy to me.

 

I am not a bleeding heart liberal nor am I a believer in monetary restitution for past discretion but I don’t believe just because I have screwed someone in the past and got away with it I should look the other way in their time of need <thereby screwing them through avoidance>.

 

Well.

 

I actually have one word for us in this moral less stance we seem to be tacking on this issue … a native American Indian word …  Majimanidoo.

 

It is the Chippewa Indians <or Ojibwe tribe if we want to be technically correct> for ‘evil spirit’.

It is an especially brutal word because by ‘evil spirit’ the Indian tribe means ‘someone born without a soul.’

 

This word embodies someone devoid of anything good.

 

You know what? I tend to believe Native American Indians sure could be thinking about using that word for us.

screwed sign

We screwed them by killing them off.

 

We screwed them by taking away their lands.

 

We screwed them by demanding they lose their culture and become … well … Christian Caucasians.

 

And then when we actually acknowledged we screwed them … we threw some money at them.

 

In Life we can all end up on some side of some pretty bad things. This surely seems like one of those bad things.

 

But this is fixable.

 

I cannot right a wrong and I cannot unscrew all the screwing … but I can certainly take some steps to insure the next generation is less screwed than the generations we gave screwed to date.

 

I stand by my suggestions I made back in 2009. I would not only insure they had proper food, water & shelter but I would also build programs that insured the children had a chance to break the cycle. http://brucemctague.com/200-years-later-the-american-indian-may-be-partially-unscrewed

 

Money does not solve everything and in this case I don’t want to give anyone money … I want to give them the opportunity to be … well … not just better than their parents <which is what all parents want for their kids> but rather I want them to be better than my parents, your parents and any parents. I want to give them the opportunity to be the best version of who and what they are as a person.

That’s what gets them out of this unfucking believable screwed up situation we created by screwing them.

 

Look.

 

Every once in a while I see an incredibly bad ad, for a very good cause — support justice for Native American tribes, organizations, and individuals – in television.

 

I’m not exactly sure what to make of this strange bad ad.

 

It seems like the purpose is to solicit donations … but I can’t imagine rapping that “…the Indian Wars never ended…” will make very many people sympathetic to what is a significantly underappreciated issue – societally & morally.

 

I would offer to do their marketing for free just because I believe they deserve better and the issue deserves national attention.

 

I imagine my issue with getting this free gig would be, if asked, I would tell them all I would do is show images throughout the history of time leading to indian war fuck columbusthe current situation with a voice over that said:

 

“we were happy … and then you came and screwed us … screwed us some more … figured out how to set up systems to ongoingly screw us … were kind enough to give us citizenship in 1924 <the last ‘minority’ to gain that … albeit we were the original Americans> … you were kind enough to give us some money not long ago to partially unscrew us … but we are still getting screwed. All we want is an opportunity to not get screwed.”  

 

 

<hence the reason I will not get this gig>

 

 

Anyway.

 

As for now … and the native America homeless?

 

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What’s remarkable about Indian Country’s massive and forgotten housing crisis is that it would not exist if our government and society simply cared enough to devote adequate resources to putting roofs over the heads of people who need and deserve them. The troubling reality is that unless that roof makes someone money, we simply don’t care.

Julian Brave NoiseCat

indians still here

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At some point it would be nice if we could figure out a way to stop screwing the Native American Indians because they will always be here — it is their home.

 

That just doesn’t seem too much to ask.

 

health care in 2017 from a business perspective

March 22nd, 2017

take the extra time to do things right the first time

 

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If you don’t have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?

 

—-

John Wooden

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American healthcare is getting quite tiring. Shit … I have written about it in 2009 and even recently wrote about it <Healthscare > as recently as January 4th 2017.

it is complicated complex not simple Life world 

All you have to do is turn on the tv or maybe go to some politics driven website and you will see gobs of articles & pundits yapping about the upcoming vote on repealing the Affordable Healthcare Act <Obamacare>.

 

Suffice it to say the new plan is not being particularly well embraced by its own party as they plod their way toward the finish line vote tomorrow.

 

To me this whole discussion and action plan shows the lack of business leadership knowledge which exists in politics and government. And, yes, that includes the President <who should know better if he was truly a business person>.

 

Let me address some key issues from a business perspective.

 

 

Time.

 

30 days.

That’s about the amount of time this repeal plan of action has been discussed <just ignore the last 7 years which they should have been thinking about it … or even the additional month or so if you wanted to begin on inauguration slow down take time do rightday>.

 

30 days for something like this is insane.

 

Okay. It is just stupid.

 

This is unlike how the Affordable Care Act <ACA> was implemented, which – just to remind everyone — was debated for almost an entire year in both houses of Congress with 79 hearings in the House alone and a number of amendments incorporated in the process … and hospitals, associations and insurers were all brought in.

 

But you know what?

 

Any business person with half a brain would tell you trying to build a plan of action which would turn a company 180 degrees around <or at least something that would change maybe 20% of the entire revenue stream> and gain alignment is going to take more than 30 days.

 

Any business person with half a brain would tell you pushing through this kind of change without alignment, education and some aspects of agreement is not only foolish but deadly.

 

Any business person with half a brain would take a step back and say “lets take the time we need to get this right.”

 

Promises delivered.

 

I have noted before business leaders only have to learn this lesson once … a bad promise delivered is never remembered as a promise delivered … just  promise i something bad delivered.

 

Leaders get paid to make good decisions not deliver bad promises. I have made many ‘promises’ <more often ‘plans of action’ than promises> and yet still stood up in front of people and sucked it up and said “I did not know this then, I know this now, and we will not do the plan I said … but rather here is where we go from here” when I had to.

Why? Every business leader knows honesty wins more often than wasted energy.

 

Just doing something because you said you would do it is … well … stupid business.

 

Any business person with half a brain is very careful making promises but exponentially more careful about the promises you choose to fulfill <because one is just words and the other is action>.

 

 

Phased plans.

 

Speaker Ryan has said not to worry — there will be a “second” and “third” phase that will fix everything.

 

Uh oh.

Future plans. Need I remind everyone that the Affordable Healthcare Plan was a plan intended to adapt <have other ‘phases’> to the market and make adjustments to accommodate what happened when the plan actually hit the market?

Everyone should be reminded of this.

 

December 2009 I wrote my first thoughts on the affordable healthcare act and the thoughts remain exactly the way I believe …

 

Sure.

The way it’s conceived – all the weird aspects they had to build in upfront to try and make the system work from the get go,  the complex subsidy system that rocket scientists cannot even explain, odd benefit levels, an unwieldy sign up system, just to name a few, absolutely suck.

But, if we see the program as fluid <which any sane business would do> it will evolve until we settles into better solutions and better affect. As I said back in 2009 … the initial plan ain’t gonna be perfect <any business person worth a shit could have told them that>.

perfection progress

 

Obamacare would most likely be humming along quite nicely if Congress had made the necessary adjustments in real time <like any business person with half a brain would have>. Instead phase 2, 3 … or … well … any phase … never occurred as congress haggled over the plan itself.

 

All I can tell you is that if this American Healthcare Frankenstein of a plan is actually implemented everyone, Republicans & Democrats, better decide this time “in for a penny in for a pound.” That is where the Affordable Healthcare Act stumbled … not everyone invested in it once it was in market.

 

All I can tell you is that any business person with half a brain would be hesitant to offer a phased plan to an organization that has a history of getting stuck in phase one.

 

Look.

 

I certainly know that if you are a 100% free market healthcare believer that tweaking the current plan doesn’t have a lot of appeal to you. But we have a plan, flaws and all, that has a strong foundation which creates the potential for something better than what was <healthcare going into 2008 was shit>.

 

time to do it right do it overI certainly know that the ACA needs to be tweaked.

 

I certainly know that the ACA should have been tweaked years ago.

 

I certainly know that the ACA could be fixed fairly quickly and efficiently.

 

And I certainly know that any new plan will not be perfect and will also need tweaking.

 

But what I absolutely know is that the current plan is not good and any business person with half a brain would stop the insanity, step up to some microphone and outline a reason why giving the American people the best alternative takes time.

 

Slow down.

Stop.

 

Get this right … because this is NOT about keeping your job or eve keeping your promises … this is about people’s live and their healthcare.

 

 

Enlightened Conflict