Enlightened Conflict

college athlete to professional something else

April 6th, 2015

odds never n our favor

“How passionately they explain the numbers and how much they emphasize the deck is stacked against athletes varies between institutions.

It is a message that a lot of coaches don’t want to send.

And it’s a message, frankly, that a lot of athletes don’t want to hear at this stage in their lives.”

=

Mark Nagel

———————-

=

Lloyd Christmas: What do you think the chances are of a guy like you and a girl like me … ending up together?

Mary Swanson: Well, Lloyd, that’s difficult to say. I mean, we don’t really…

Lloyd Christmas: Hit me with it! Just give it to me straight! I came a long way just to see you, Mary.

The least you can do is level with me. What are my chances?

Mary Swanson: Not good.

Lloyd Christmas: You mean, not good like one out of a hundred?

Mary Swanson: I’d say more like one out of a million.

[pause]

Lloyd Christmas: So you’re telling me there’s a chance … YEAH!

==

Dumb and Dumber

——————-

athletes -collage

 

Ok.

 

 

First.

 

 

Let me be clear in using a dumb & dumber quote I am not going to be suggesting college athletes are dumb. If anything I believe people would be surprised at how worldly and smart and hard working 99% of college athletes are.

 

 

Second.

 

With the NCAA men’s basketball finals tonight I wanted to take a moment and talk about the link, or the lack thereof, between playing collge sports and playing professionally.

 

 

I thought of this when during one of the semi final games I was asked how many players move on to the NBA. I guessed maybe 5%.

 

 

I was wrong.

 

Just using Division 1 it is 1.2%

 

There are 347 Division I college basketball teams. Each team offers 13 scholarships.

 

That’s about 4,511 Division I college basketball players this year.

 

 

 

In addition.

 

 

265 teams in Division II, 325 teams in Division III and 259 teams in NAIA.

 

That’s about another 11,000 players,
Using Division 1 alone … only 1.2% of college basketball players will be drafted by a National Basketball Association team.

 

Less will end up actually playing.

 

 

Uhm.

 

 

This means less than ½ of 1% of total college basketball players will play in the NBA.

 

 

Ok.

 

Sure.

 

“Professional” doesn’t have to mean the NBA because there are a lot of other options around the world, especially in Europe, Israel, Turkey, etc.

 

And, to be clear, there are not a lot of Division III student-athletes who think, or know, they are going to play in the NBA. Overseas professional leagues are pretty numerous <even if they don’t pay as well as the NBA> and the idea of spending at least a year playing in and getting to see another part of the world while getting paid is pretty attractive … especially to students focus more on their studies than many Division I athletes – especially those who want to play in the NBA.

 

athlete 98All the caveats aside … this means 98+% of college athletes never play professionally.

 

 

And while we watched Kentucky, Duke, Wisconsin and Michigan State all play an incredibly high level of basketball … 98% of them will not play professionally.

 

 

 

Ok.

 

That was a semi stunning thing to write.

 

You watch Kentucky and Duke and think High School All Americans and it will be a given they play professionally.

 

Yikes. Not so much.

 

 

Ok.

 

 

So maybe the elite of the elite may send 2 … maybe 3 at best to be drafted … in one given year … and then maybe half of those are actually NBA worthy. But this is the best of the best and over a 5 year span the % drops significantly.

 

 

Playing professionally, in any sport not just basketball, is … well … a pretty long shot.
In January a guy named Jake New tackled this topic.

 

==

College athletes vastly overestimate their chances of playing professional sports.

The problem is so pervasive that Mark Emmert, the NCAA’s president, devoted significant space to the issue during his most recent state of the association address, saying that “athletes often have incredibly unrealistic perceptions of their professional prospects.”

According to NCAA surveys, more than 60% of Division I college men’s ice hockey players think it’s likely they’ll play professionally, but less than 1 percent ever go on to the National Hockey League.

About 45% of Division I women’s basketball players think they have a chance to play professional basketball, but only 0.9% of players are drafted by a Women’s National Basketball Association team.

<The NCAA said that it is currently procuring data on a player’s chances of joining other professional leagues, such as those in Europe, but the information is not yet available>

Men’s hoops players are the most unrealistic. More than three-quarters of men’s basketball players in Division I say they believe it is at least “somewhat likely” they will play professionally. More than half of Division II players say the same, as do 21 percent of Division III players. Only 1.2 percent of college basketball players will be drafted by an National Basketball Association team.

==

Now.

 

 

We <colleges and adult influencers in general> don’t help.

 

 

While the NCAA actually does a pretty good job marketing the fact that athletes should have realistic expectations and that ‘the majority of college athletes go on to do something better’ <note: I do like their message and the campaign>.

 

 

Colleges kind of derail the message by promoting their successes <by the way … not in percentages but rather by individuals>.

 

 

For example … some colleges list the individuals who have attended the university and gone on to fame and professional playing <not noting that these are actually exceptions and not the rule>.

 

 

For example … on its recruiting website, UCLA is described as “#1 in Olympic Gold Medals from 1984 to 2008″ and “#1 in professional athletes.” And UCLA is very open in saying that for athletes who do dream of going professional the information can be helpful when choosing a program <note … I used UCLA but I could have used any big time college sports program and maybe not used #1 but some marketing of program success as an example>.

 

 

 

In addition … parents and adults and gobs of books promote “if you work hard enough you can attain it” or even “believing you can do it is the path to actually doing it.”

 

 

This means that colleges simply feed into what has already been planted in an athlete’s head. Some guy named Gershon Tenenbaum, a sports psychology professor at Florida State University, calls it the “self-bias phenomenon.”

 

 

And adults clearly exacerbate the situation with some relatively absurd levels of adulation with successful athletes.

 

 

things to know

I actually believe most young athletes are aware the %’s associated with professional sports is very low <even though they may not be aware of the NCAA research or specific numbers> but young people are hard to convince … not only do they want to be seen as some statistic but we actually encourage them to be the exception.

 

 

 

Personally I know I have a love/hate relationship with regard to how my own parents managed my love of sports and whatever ability I may have had.

 

They constantly stressed the low likelihood of being good enough to play professionally and were relentless with regard to me not ‘wasting my time’ on sports and focusing on other things therefore I always had a pretty good perspective on my abilities and ‘chances’ … all the while I had coaches tugging at me to play and practice and ‘maximize’ the ability I did have.

 

 

I am not sure it was the tug-of-war was the best thing for my esteem but it certainly gave me a realistic point of view when the time came to hang up my cleats & glove.

 

 

But it is not easy.

 

By the time you reach college level of sports you know you are ‘good’ … and have attained at least a higher level on the athletic pyramid. For years an athlete moves on to higher and higher levels of competition and by getting to a college level an athlete actually gets to a level that is maybe 95%+ higher level than your peers.

 

 

In basketball … a little over 3% of high school men’s and women’s basketball players make it to the college level. mature 69 percent

 

In football … maybe 6% of high school football players make it to the college level.

 

 

Success breeds some confidence … but the research also suggests it also breeds some delusional thinking with regard to what is possible.

 

 

What the hell.

 

You made it this far … why not all the way?

 

 

And in today’s world <which is NOTHING like when I grew up> we have elevated youth sports to such a level we almost create a celebrity status to not only successful teams <which inflates the egos of the individuals even if they are not stars> as well as the actual stars themselves.

 

 

We, adults, do this because we tend to believe confidence can elevate talent … or that a higher level of confidence can help overcome any real odds of ‘yikes, we should lose this one.’

 

 

 

Breeding confidence in a young person is a delicate balance and we adults are anything but delicate with regard to the young & sports.

 

 

This actually creates the “athlete student” problem <note: I did not say student athlete>.

 

 

We have created a breed of young athlete that considers academics beneath them because they are “going to play professional sports.”

 

 

Yes. This is a delusion for most.

 

But those who could actually judge talent the best, coaches, have no incentive to create a work ethic in academics <or social skills, emotional maturity and improving their reading, writing, and analytical skills beyond elementary school in order to “win” at something bigger> unless it is associated with ‘eligibility.’

 

 

Sure.

 

We can find some coach exceptions.

 

 

But then there are we adults … who fuck everything up.

 

 

The head of the NCAA has clearly stated … “explaining to athletes that their passion — and years of hard work — is not likely to lead to a career is an uncomfortable but necessary conversation to have.”

listen hand

==

“How can we help them understand the realities of what that looks like?

What can we change to give them a more realistic sense of it? How do we get a handle on that?

How can we provide them with a greater sense of the realities and what that looks like?”

==

 

 

The NCAA clearly advertises: “there are 400,000 NCAA student-athletes, and almost all of them will go pro in something other than sports.”
Young athletes don’t always absorb the message.

 

But that is mostly because we adults haven’t learned the delicate balance of managing reality, dreams and confidence.
Reality is tough.

Reality is often captured in some harsh truth.

 

 

I could simply suggest that later tonight one team will go home as a loser.

 

It would be harsher to suggest that of the 26 young men who walk onto the court most likely 90% of them, the elite players on the elite teams, will leave the court and do something other than play professionally.

 

 

Has anybody told them that?

 

athlete dream reality

Would they play the game a little bit harder or with a little more passion or a little more ‘this is it’?

 

 

Shit.

 

I don’t know.

 

 

What I do know is that I will watch the game and be amazed by the talent and skill and sheer joy of the game … and know that most of them will have to figure out a way of making a living doing something other than playing basketball.

oldest known form of freedom

April 1st, 2015

consistency dangerous freedom

 

“If he wants to be an asshole, it’s a free country.

 

Millions before him have made the same life choice.”

 

=

Margaret Atwood

 

 

 

Well.

 

 

This is mostly about freedom of speech … but also includes the spirit of freedom that lies within us.

 

Anyway.

 

 

 

I would imagine that as soon as humans began some form of thinking beyond survival, sex and eating … they began to grapple with freedom. Uhm. And have been grappling ever since.

 

 

I tend to believe it is a lifelong, generation spanning, grapple because freedom is instilled in all of us.

 

 

It can be found in youth as breaking free of adult rules & restrictions.

 

 

It can be found in adults in physical behavior <traveling beyond the boundaries of current location>, self-esteem <freeing oneself from self-destructive – or self-inhibiting – thoughts> or even cultural attitudes <seeing things differently than before>.

 

It does not matter who you are or what type of personality you have … inevitably all of us seem to constantly seek to ‘free ourselves’ in a variety of ways or at least seek some aspect of freedom in our lives.

 

In fact.

 

I would tend to suggest that freedom is at the core of the human soul.

 

Conversely.

 

 

This means that anything that inhibits freedom chafes. Shit … something doesn’t even have to actually inhibit … we just have to think it may inhibit our freedom and it chafes.

 

Regardless.

 

 

I began this post when I saw a picture of “cuneiform” … an ancient form of writing … where, etched on a cave wall, was the word “Freedom”written in Sumeria in 2500 B.C.

 

 

freedom amagi cuineifform

freedom (ama-gi) written in Sumerian cuneiform

==

 

 

 

This means humans have craved freedom for thousands of year.

 

By the way.

 

Craving can create some fairly passionate feelings.

—-

 

Ask her what she craved, and she’d get a little frantic about things like books, the woods, music.

Plants and the seasons.

 

Also freedom.

=

Nightwoods – Charles Frazier

 

 

 

All that said.

 

Who would have ever thought freedom would be tricky to discuss?

<not me>

 

 

But.

It is.

 

I like to believe I am a fairy articulate guy and I know I always have an opinion … and yet … when discussing freedom I seem to offer up well intended meaningless pabulum <”freedom is good”> and struggle when asked “when does freedom become lack of tolerance?”

 

Maybe because I never thought freedom and intolerance would ever be in the same sentence let alone the same thought.

 

It is easy to say things like … if you say stupid stuff that will cost your employer money, expect to face consequences. But that also assumes I can show a direct cause-effect relationship.

 

 

I would suggest, however, that simplistically … while freedom is a privilege … free speech is actually a responsibility.

 

Uhm.

 

That means … you say dumb things and you can face consequences.

 

 

I say that because all of a sudden there is a ‘victim’ mentality being associated with people who say dumb shit.

 

freedom to speak

Well.

 

Any ‘victim’ is free to say stupid things.

Any and all the times they want.

 

But they also aren’t guaranteed a job by their employers if they do so.

 

That is freedom of an employer to decide who represents their company and their brand.

 

Is that discrimination?

 

Yikes.

 

Another tricky topic.

 

 

Sure.

 

It is establishing some discriminatory behavior guidelines with which you assess your employee.

 

Outlined up front … well … they are established.

 

And they represent … well … let’s call it ‘rules.’

 

Sure.

Some could argue that individuals do not exist to promote the interests of group consensus.

 

Uhm.

Unless that individual is actually part of a group … like a company.

 

 

Therefore, in that case, if a person who thinks differently from the company desired behavior says something that suggests “offensive” … outside the ‘established rules’ … the group <the company> does have freedom to act.

 

 

Anyway.

 

This is all why freedom is tricky.

 

 

Don’t bother trying to make sense of what beliefs are permitted, what words or phrases are permitted and which ones will get you hauled off as some criminal to be placed on the rack in the middle of town.

 

Even worse?

 

Today’s world has created a minefield of inconsistency.

 

 

Criticizing Islam can be construed as intolerant and yet insulting Christianity is simply a sport.

 

 

But.

 

This is not about religion … this is simply about freedom.

 

freedom feels like hold

And once you have freedom … you don’t ever <ever> want to give it up … even a small degree of it.

 

 

That is why I scratch my head as the mob delightfully destroys people’s lives under the guise of intolerance <and yet that person was sharing freedom of thought … albeit sometimes dumb>.

 

I also scratch my head thinking that the mob seems to never stop to ask themselves the basic scary question … what happens when they come for me?

 

 

Yup.

If history is any guide that’s what will happen.

 

 

Regardless of the ‘mob mentality’ and political correctness … we need to pay attention.

 

 

Because, at its most basic, we are discussing freedom of thought.

 

And it is the out of control political correctness and the knee-jerk consequences we assign to speaking out of the norm that we need to pay attention to.

 

Maybe it is possible we are simply blinded with the richness of our freedom.

Because freedom is blindingly bright.

 

 

===

We feel like we have escaped from a dark cave into the bright daylight.

 

And here we stand not knowing where to go or what to do.”

==

unknown Siberian peasant after the Russian Revolution

———–

 

 

I imagine I used that quote to make everyone think about the ‘dark cave.’ Let’s call it the cave of intolerance where views were never expressed. Or views were only expressed in private … in the cave as it were.

 

Oops.

 

In today’s world the cave is public.

public is the new private

And public is the new private.

 

 

 

Ok.

 

Let’s be clear. There is no longer ‘private.’

 

 

But just because it becomes public doesn’t mean you lose your freedom to speak and think.

 

 

 

And this public world is the world we live in.

Our forefathers made laws about freedom of speech (to protect citizens from government, not to protect gossip channels), but they never displayed equal foresight for privacy.

Probably because in their day decorum prevented certain behaviors from ever seeing the public eye.

 

That was a long time ago.

 

Today, no place is safe, no restaurant, no parking lot, perhaps not even your own bedroom.

But its not just privacy.

 

 

It is anything and everything IN the public.

 

 

 ===

 

 

Students at the University of St. Thomas in Minnesota canceled a “Hump Day” celebration featuring a camel because someone thought the camel signified racism against Muslims.

(Yes, Muslims aren’t a race, but that doesn’t matter, apparently.)

 

 

Dartmouth cancelled a charitable fund-raising “fiesta” because one student complained that the word “fiesta” was racist. And going beyond race, commencement speakers, ranging from Condi Rice at Rutgers to Christine LaGarde at Smith, have been turned away by rabid student protests, mocked here by Yale Law’s Stephen Carter.

From the economics to the politics, colleges and universities are looking less like serious places to improve one’s mind and one’s prospects, and more like expensive islands of frivolity and, sometimes, viciousness.

 

===

 

 

Frankly … it has reached some absurd levels.

 

freedom free speech

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And I am not speaking of political correctness … but rather … freedom of thought.

 

 

 

“We naturally associate democracy with freedom of action, but freedom of action without freed capacity of thought behind it is only chaos.”

 

=

John Dewey

 

I am certainly not condoning stupidity.

 

 

 

However.

 

 

People are free to be stupid.

 

<note: I have written about how the most articulate stupid, the morons, are actually quite intelligent: http://brucemctague.com/morons   >

 

And while I ramble on about tolerance, and intolerance, it may be good to remind ourselves that we are actually a country of knowledge and learning. While our country’s success has a foundation of “doing” <other countries always think we are always in a rush>, the doing has a strong thread of quality about it because we are a country of thinkers.

 

 

Great thinking.

 

 

Great freedom of ideas.

 

 

Great freedom of thought.

 

 

 

Look.

 

 

We always think about what we deserve or are entitled to.

 

 

Sometime these rights, or freedoms, are viewed that way by people.

 

We think about those rights to which we are entitled … which, uhm, are actually not an entitlement but rather a privilege guaranteed by our Constitution & Bill of Rights.

 

The words are part of our everyday vernacular and part of our identity and therefore deemed a ‘given’ not a ‘privilege.’

 

 

But just because we enjoy certain rights and privileges does not mean we can do whatever we want … whenever we want to.

 

 

There are necessary restraints on freedom.

 

Basically the most basic restraint is that you may enjoy your ‘freedom of’ liberty as long as you do not harm others <or yourself>.

confidence stupid people

 

Oh.

 

 

 

And this doesn’t mean ‘harm someone else’s’ thought.’

 

This means actual harm.

 

 

I think <I am no lawyer> that legally … restriction of our freedom is rarely justified.  Suffice to say that the legal judiciary has to prove it has a reason to limit the freedom, that the law actually addresses the harm (i.e., that by limiting our freedom the government is actually protecting us from something harmful).

 

 

Oh.

So why should a ‘jury of peers’ not have to follow the same rules? The burden is to PROVE a reason to limit a freedom … not just bully it into change or limiting.

 

 

Harmful thought is incredibly difficult to prove <excepting maybe inciting to riot’>.

 

There’s a massive difference between expressing your personal opinion versus trying to punish someone for theirs.

 

I fear we are leaving ‘I do not agree with what you have to say but will defend to the death your right to say’ behind and it is being replaced with I do not agree with what you have to say and will do everything in my power to ruin you for saying it or even thinking it.’

 

 

I fear there is little, or no,  tolerance for a different point of view these days.

 

 

I fear it is gone.

 

 

And within that fear is a greater fear.

 

 

I fear we have begun a slippery slope on something so innate, so powerful … it resides within all of us – freedom. I fear we are grappling with ‘what are the limits on freedom’ on this very very slippery slope.

 

stupid but will do it anyway

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I fear we are undoing something, freedom, which has been around for thousands of years.

 

 

In the end I like to remind people that a desire for freedom resides in every one of us … from the minute we are born. And while it is born within us many of us never have the privilege of  living somewhere in which we can actually live with freedom of thought, speech and religion.

 

 

And because it truly is a privilege … it seems like we should be doing more to protect freedom rather than seeking ways to limit it.

 

 

This includes, yes, freedom to be stupid.

things people don’t say

March 20th, 2015

easy hard said
—–

“I want to write a novel about Silence,” he said; “the things people don’t say.”

=

Virginia Woolf

—–

“I don’t broadcast every high & I don’t hide every low.

I’m trying to live.

I’m not trying to convince the world I have life.”

=

Unknown

—–

“Her eyes were rimmed with long nights and things she wishes she had said.”

=

Flowers In Bone Cages

—–

“Humans are easy to read, because what they’re not saying speaks volumes.”

=

Joel T. McGrath

—-

 

 

 

 

Ok.

 

 

words know what to say

This is not about things ‘not said’ … that would be about regrets and missed moments and shit like that … this is about selective silence.

 

 

When we select, or elect, to be silent … and the choice, and choices, we make with regard to ‘silent.’

 

 

In general I think we respect people of few words. We think of them as thoughtful and good listeners.

 

 

 

Me?

 

 

When I enjoy the company of those who do not say much … I wonder what battle is going on inside their heads.

 

 

And, no, not the battle to keep from speaking <those are different type of people>.

 

 

This is the battle of thoughts.

 

 

The battle that rages between all the words spoken and those not spoken … clashing to create a myriad of thoughts.

 

 

 

This is all about the words you finally debate in your mind on whether they are worth sharing or simply meant to be shelved somewhere in your mind or even discarded as junk.

 

 

 

This is all about the words which scream at the top of their lungs… but are not heard except in the head.

 

 

 

This is all about the words you smother because … well … some words are not meant to be spoken.

 

—–

“Some of the greatest battles will be fought within the silent chambers of your own soul.”

=

Erza Taft Benson

 start somewhere words

 

The mind can be a wonderful, and terrible, place. Within the best minds resides a tug of war where even words themselves stand at each end staring at each other pulling as hard as they can.

 

 

Use this word.

 
No.

 

 

Use THIS word.

 

 

And while those of us looking on who cannot see the battle inside sit & wait … we often think of the moment as a deliberate use of silent ‘space and time.’

 

Deliberately using silence to prompt those of us around to go further in thought.

 

 

Silly silly us.

 

Inside the silent resides the war.

 

 

I imagine at the essence of what I am discussing is my belief most people are not flippant with regard to how they use their words <I say this despite the fact we watch blathering mouths scattering words like confetti around a room>.

 

 

I do tend to believe most people speak with Salvatore Quasimodo in mind:

 

 

—-

In my voice

there is at least a sign

of living geometry

the words of life

I have never understood

—-

 

What make the battle more difficult is … well … the world around us.

 

It sometimes seems like the world is structurally hostile to nuance.

 

 

Subtlety doesn’t seem to be very effective these days.

 

The internet amplifies and facilitates a sense that we should think the worst of people <even ones we have never met> and to ignore any facts or context that may potentially eliminate the doubt or uncertainty.

 

 

Truth always seems just out of reach and yet being called a liar always seems close at hand.

 

 

People aren’t, in general, stupid.

 

 

Everyone knows how it works.

 

 

Refusing to speak means avoiding the fact that as soon as the words are spoken they begin winging their way across social media … where they inevitably seem to end up mutating into something simplistic and inflammatory therefore overshadowing not only anything else you may say … but also what you may have really said <or meant to say>.

 

 

words there are noThis all leads to self-censorship and calculated blandness.

 

 

This all leads to the ‘should I speak’ battle inside the head raging even longer … where neither side wins. It remains a stalemate … and only silence wins.

 

 

—–

“… had their ideology combed over, examined, misinterpreted, rewritten and kicked to death a hundred times.

Talk about breaking a butterfly on a wheel.”

=

Steven Wells

————–

 

 

What happens when people become fearful of saying anything that might be misconstrued is that they … well … remain silent <when they SHOULD say something>.

 

And while it would be easy for me to say that the words you stop yourself from saying are the ones that will haunt you the longest … I also think most people really know this.

 

 

What is more difficult for us to maybe grasp is that the words they <other people> stop themselves from saying are actually the ones that will haunt us the longest.

 

 

Now.

 

I feel relatively confident suggesting that in today’s world the battle inside the head for what to say versus what not to say most often ends up in a place where silence wins because … well … that is why there seem to be so many more writers in today’s world.

 
And I mean writers as in diaries, blogs, tumblr, pinterest, any form of a journal or scribblings or words that capture what you may want to say … just not verbally out loud.

 

Words can battle on the page.

 

Words seem quieter on paper.

 

Words seem like they may go unnoticed <which a part of us actually wants>.

 

 

——–

“I am much better on paper.”

=

Jared M.

===

right words some day simple

 

Anyway.

 

 

The best minds are very careful in what they say and do not say.

 

 

The best minds have some of the greatest battles <we will never see>.

 

 

Let’s be sure the best minds don’t let silence win those battles.

global warning part 4 or climate change discussion enters the ludicrous stage

February 20th, 2015

 

enlightened conflict think

“Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.”

Mark Twain

==

 

So.

 

 

If you had asked me in 2010 when I wrote about climate change if we would still be debating climate change 5 years later I would have said “are you crazy? .. no way.”

 

 

<links to my 2010 ‘global warning parts 1, 2 & 3 are below>

Good thing I didn’t bet any money.

 

 

There is still crazy debate over <a> whether there is truly any climate change occurring and <b> the role of people with regard to any change.

 

climate change writing

In whatever articulate brilliance I could sum up in 2010 I was able to express my overall point of view on climate change in USAToday:

 

 

—-

<in 2010>

I just wrote something for USA Today because I finally got fed up with all the ignorant people writing in every time there is a big snowstorm about “so, where are all the global warming people now!”

I have kept my mouth shut for a very long time reading all the global warming “quips” every time it snows … but I have had it.

What I said (approximately):

First.

I am a skeptic.

The data is confusing, the experts are confusing, and the issues are confusing.

Second.

It’s too bad the entire issue got stuck with global warming. It’s climate change. Or maybe just water warming. (see glaciers melting as proof – ignore climate data)

Third.

(and most important to what I keep reading about the snow)

Global warming is not about every place becoming warmer it is about changing weather patterns. Larger swings in weather activity (colder and warmer). It is foolish to link the phrase ‘warming’ to “more snow today.” it is quite possible your weather pattern translates into a stronger drought somewhere in Africa or torrential downpours in South America or whatever.

————————

Anyway.

All the ongoing debate seems to suggest we don’t understand that avoiding the problem doesn’t solve it.

 

 

Regardless.

 

 

 

Why is this ongoing ‘debate’ now verging on ludicrous?

 

 

Well.

 

 

Suffice it to say a survey of thousands of peer-reviewed papers in scientific journals has found 97.1% <now I believe it is over 98%> agreed that climate change is caused <in some degree or another> by human activity.

Climate Consensus AndResistance2

 

At minimum they agree humans contribute to climate change.

 

 

Suffice it to say the survey findings reflect a near unanimity.

 

 

And you would tend to believe this provides a powerful rebuttal to climate contrarians <often called “deniers”> who continue to insist the science of climate change remains unsettled <or they simply focus on ‘not all people agree’ as their argument>.

 

 

 

Look.

 

 

The survey considered the work of some 29,000 scientists published in 11,994 academic papers and only 0.7%, or 83, of those articles disputed the scientific consensus that human activity contributes to climate change.

 

 

All one can truly conclude if you have even one iota of common sense is … well …. this:

 

 

==

“Our findings prove that there is a strong scientific agreement about the cause of climate change, despite public perceptions to the contrary.”

John Cook of the University of Queensland

===

hope versus positive thinking

Look.

 

 

At some point it would seem fairly rational to concede that some pretty smart people who truly have a reputation to maintain <so they cannot all be ‘bought’ by some liberal agenda or corporate money> have reached a close enough total agreement that it is ‘truth’ and maybe we should move on to the next phase.

 

 

Uhm.

 

The next phase? That would actually be doing something.

 

 

In the end.

 

 

Be cynical if you want.

 

Be skeptical if you want.

 

But, please, be reasonable.

===

(Quote from AndrewofBrooklyn, 2009)

It is true, as the skeptics like to point out, that long-term climate modeling remains an inexact science. Some environmentalists hurt their cause by leaping to blame every extreme weather event on global warming.

And a changing climate produces winners as well as losers.

But climate scientists are 95% to 100% sure that human activity — emission of greenhouse gases — is the dominant cause of dramatic warming. That warming is already raising sea levels, acidifying oceans, melting glaciers and intensifying heat waves, downpours, droughts and wildfires.

==

 

 

That’s it.

 

 

I am slightly disgusted, certainly disappointed, that we continue to debate & discuss the wrong things.

 

 

It is time that we begin to use our best weapon, knowledge, and look for a solution that is practical and safe.

 

It will take a lot of work and it will not be easy … but I am confident we will find it <once we actually get aligned and get going>.

thinker thumbtack

 

 

———— Addendum ————

 

 

I added this because the newest ‘climate change denier’ attack is on Antarctic sea ice. I added it to show that while many may try the “it goes against common sense” argument … scientifically multiple data points tell a story and not just one factoid.

smart kid point
===

2014 is set to be one of the hottest years on record.

This comes at a time when Arctic summer sea ice melted to its sixth-lowest extent this year: 1.9m square miles. 2012 still holds the record, with just 1.32m square miles of sea ice by the summer’s end.

At roughly the same time, Antarctic winter sea ice hit a record high of 7.76m square miles. This seeming contradiction in polar ice conditions has armed the arguments of global warming deniers: while the climate might be changing, the results at a global scale seem to be “evening out”, right? If the total amount of ice on the planet’s surface remains the same, does it really matter where it is?

The short answer is yes.

More sea ice around Antarctica does not make up for less in the Arctic Ocean.

christmas ice

==

How is Arctic sea ice different from Antarctic sea ice?

The Arctic consists of an ocean surrounded relatively closely by land, while Antarctica is the inverse: a polar continent ringed by a massive sea, the Southern Ocean.

Around Antarctica, however, sea ice conditions have historically been more changeable because there is no land blocking the ice from spreading out across the Southern Ocean and encountering warmer winds and waters around its edges.

“It’s like the difference between a room and a wall,” says Ted Scambos, a lead scientist with the US National Snow and Ice Data Center.

“In the Antarctic there’s one wall, but in the Arctic there’s four walls” surrounding the Arctic Ocean.

Before human-propelled climate change began to warm the Arctic, the summer and winter extents of Arctic sea ice were fairly consistent from year to year, and a good deal of Arctic sea ice would endure over multiple years to form a resilient, year-round layer of ice over the ocean, helping to keep temperatures cool.

That has changed in the past decade.

While more than half the Arctic ice pack used to be multi-year ice, says Julienne Stroeve, a research scientist at the US National Snow and Ice Data Center, “after 2007 and 2012, big ice loss years, about 70% of the ice pack was first-year, and the rest multi-year.

“In 2013, less than 5% of Arctic sea ice was five years or older,” Stroeve says. “In 1980s-90s, 20% or more was five years or older.”

What’s causing the unusual decrease in Arctic sea ice?

Climate change is increasing temperatures in the world’s far north at a faster rate than in lower latitudes (an effect sometimes called “Arctic amplification”). Over the past half-century, average temperatures in the contiguous 48 US states have increased by an average of 1.7F (1C) above historic norms, while those across Alaska have gone up an average of 3.4F(2C) year-round, and 6.3F(4C) in winter.

<source: The Vital Signs platform>

SmartBaby answer

===

some semi-smart things I have said about climate change:

http://brucemctague.com/global-warning-part-1

http://brucemctague.com/global-warning-part-2

http://brucemctague.com/global-warning-the-proof-part-3

Enlightened Conflict