Enlightened Conflict

come to an entirely erroneous conclusion my dear Watson

June 9th, 2017

conclusion header facts truth

================

 

“I had,” he said, “come to an entirely erroneous conclusion, my dear Watson, how dangerous it always is to reason from insufficient data.”

 

Sherlock Holmes

<The Adventure of the Speckled Band>

 

================

 

 

“When we get better understanding or the facts or evidence don’t agree with the theory we must change the theory and change course.””

 

Sherlock Holmes

 

============

 

“… when you hear hoof beats behind you don’t expect a zebra.”

 

proverb

 

===================

 

So.

 

“I believe” may be two of the most dreaded word you can hear in today’s world.

i believe hand writingThose two words may be this century’s version of throwing down a gauntlet or challenging someone to a duel.

 

“I believe” has been bastardized in today’s world to actually mean “I know” <but people have convinced themselves if they soften it with ‘I believe’ people will think they are more open to listening and true discussion>.

 

Facts matter. And they matter a shitload not only with truth but in the battle between I know and I believe.

 

The problem is that while facts are facts … two facts can coexist in the pursuit of “I know.”

 

Shit.

The truth is that … well … truth , the unequivocal kind, is most likely borne of let’s say 8 facts <I made that number up> coexisting … which when arranged into a pattern make up an unequivocal truth.

 

This means unequivocal truth … or let’s call it good solid “I know” is made up of a puzzle of facts … not just one fact or even two.facts conclusion truth think

 

The practice of Truth is actually a profession of facts.

 

Using legalese for binding of contracts … by means of facts, truths are created and beliefs come into existence. Yet, in spite of all good intentions, the meanings of individual facts are not always clear and unequivocal. They may be capable of being understood in more ways than one, they may be doubtful or uncertain, and they may lend themselves to various interpretations by different individuals.

 

Following that thought … this means, when differences in understanding are not resolvable, divides in “beliefs” occur and dysfunction, in terms of lack of progress, occurs.

 

Once again, in legal terms, this is called “ambiguity.”

 

void delicious ambiguityParadoxically enough, the word ambiguity itself has more than one interpretation.

 

The general meaning has to do with how things are said, the words that are used, by someone and how those words are understood.

 

Ambiguity occurs where the two are not in alignment. The lack of alignment actually springs back upon the facts themselves in a vicious way — the fact itself comes into doubt.

 

Sigh.

 

But facts are facts. The problem isn’t about the fact but rather most truths are more complex than one fact. Unequivocal truth is grounded in … well … 8 facts <once again, I picked 8 out of the air but you get the point>.

 

This problem gets compounded by how people elect to actually use facts.

 

Using my 8 let me tell you what I mean. The expert, the most knowledgeable, array of facts truth findingwill stack up the 8 facts from top to bottom in order of priority … but all relevant to making and truth unequivocal.

 

 

 

Then we, the non-experts, get in the game.

 

Some of us use the highest priority fact … and that is all.

 

Some grab the facts we want in the order we want and create the truth we want.

 

Some may actually use the 8 but decided to prioritize them in a different order.

 

All are using facts. Most are using them improperly or in an incomplete way. And, inevitably, 90%+ end up with an “I believe” and not an “I know” stand.

 

I know. I know. We all wish truth could be easier and, in fact, many people flippantly suggest truth is simple <or simpler than we make it out to be>.

 

Here is what I know about that. Using the thought I used upfront in this piece “… when you hear hoof beats behind you don’t expect a zebra.”

Well.

An expert, maybe a horse trainer, could hear the hoof beats and tell you with 95% confidence the breed, the weight and the type of horse coming up behind you. The dreamer will suggest it could be a unicorn. The pragmatic will narrow it down to a horse, zebra, antelope or some 4 hoofed animal.

truth facts numbers understand question

Truth is less than simple and more in need of facts than we like to admit.

 

Yes.

 

The trouble with unequivocal truth is that it usually takes ‘one more step than you think’ to get there. Unfortunately, the truth about this is most of us don’t make it there.

 

We stop short.

And I tend to believe most of us know we are stopping short. We like the facts that we have but we, at the same time, know there are most likely some more out there that could be useful. We have 3 or 4 and decide the remaining 4 or 5 are just not that necessary. I guess we bank on the fact if we stop short we have at least grabbed the top 3 or 4 most important facts in an unequivocal truth.

 

Yikes.

 

Dangerous thought.normalizing behavior light matches flame fire danger

 

It’s dangerous in believing we have the most important ones of the ones we decided is enough but possibly even more dangerous is that we confuse an unequivocal truth for a simple “I believe” thought.

 

It is dangerous because “I believes” tend to reside in the negative space. Huh? If you only snag 4 of the 8 necessary facts the debate can never be resolved as the back & forth ends up in the blank spaces around the discussion. Truth is constructed more often by what was not found than what was found <look at what I didn’t point out versus what I did point out> – that is negative space truth.

Uhm.

That is not unequivocal truth.

 

In fact … it poisons the unequivocal truths in a misdirection of specious comparisons.

 

I would suggest that more of us should pay attention to negative space.

Why?

Negative space is usually indicative that a fact is missing. 99% of negative space can be filled with a fact <if only we looked hard enough for it>.

 

All that said.

 

Truth is the axis munid … the dead center of the earth.

 

=============

 

“the person who pretends to not see the truth is committing something much worse than a mortal sin, which can only ruin one’s soul – but instead committing us all to lifetimes of pain. The truth is not just something we bring to light to amuse ourselves; the truth is the axis munid, the dead center of the earth.

facts results truth conclude

When it’s out of place nothing is right; everyone is in the wrong place; no light can penetrate.

 

Happiness evades us and we spread pain and misery wherever we go.

Each person, above all others, has an obligation to recognize the truth and stand by it.”

 

—–

Jacque Silette

 

================

 

I believe, no, I know the world would be a better place if more of us took that thought seriously. Because if we did than maybe we wouldn’t stop short of the unequivocal truth destination. Maybe we wouldn’t settle for an “I believe” thought and confuse it with a real “I know” thought. And maybe if we did there would be less discussion of alternative facts and more discussion about unequivocal truths on which we could center ourselves on.

 

“I had,” he said, “come to an entirely erroneous conclusion, my dear Watson, how dangerous it always is to reason from insufficient data.”

 

Geez.

 

If Sherlock Holmes says that sure as shit more of us should be saying it <and I conclusion tired of thinking ideadon’t think we are>.

 

 

Unequivocal truth exists.

 

They exist as surely as Santa Claus <yes Virginia, there is a Santa Claus >.

 

We just have to want to get there and not be satisfied by stopping short and feeling good about the facts we gathered … short of the ones we need to reach unequivocal.  I don’t know that 8 facts create an unequivocal truth is the right formula but I sure as shit believe it is on the right path to getting there.

 

 

a glimpse of what a Trump win really looks like

May 5th, 2017

 

average check

 

I almost called this “confusing a win with simply checking a box on a to-do list.”

 

This is about yesterday’s American House of Representatives vote to repeal & replace Obamacare <albeit it doesn’t really repeal nor replace but rather try and fix in an absurdly negatively way>.

 

Anyway.

 

How you play the game is most likely in my top 3 important things in Life.

Anyone who reads enlightened conflict has most likely discerned this.

 

Yesterday we were able to gain a glimpse behind the curtain of what winning looks like in Donald J Trump’s eyes.

 

Do whatever it takes.

 

The only winner that counts is me.

 

As long as I can stand on the pedestal and say ‘I won’ <adding a bemused “I am president”> it is a win.

 

The American Healthcare system did not win yesterday.

The American citizen seeking good health and a good healthcare support system did not win yesterday.

The people who voted for a seriously flawed option did not win yesterday.

The Republicans did not win yesterday <although they may have breathed a sigh of relief in the moment for ‘having met a promise’>.

The Democrats did not win yesterday <although they may feel in some self serving way that they did>.

 

The only one who won was Donald J Trump <okay … health insurance trump complicated scarycompanies won today … they are back on the path to returning to doing business the way they had been doing business which, as I may remind everyone, we didn’t particularly enjoy back then and they made a shitload of money>.

 

Back to Trump.

He gave the appearance of ‘fulfilling a promise’ by making a transaction … okay … it wasn’t a transaction because nothing was exchanged between two parties.

 

Let’s say he won by “checking a box.”

 

Yeah.

We all need to remember this moving forward with regard to Trump wins.

 

Winning to Trump is like checking a box on a to do list.

 

Came in to oval office today and had picture taken. Check. <win>

 

Mentioned on news today. Check. <win>

 

Cut some regulation <which I really have no clue of the impact> so it appears like I am “freeing up business”. check. <win>

 

A yes vote on something I have no clue what the impact is on people who I am responsible for. Check. <win>

 

I can guarantee you that he has no idea of the possible consequences of this vote <a> to Republicans in the House or <b> to people. The only consequence that matters to him is the illusion of a win.

 

He is the NASCAR driver who has caused 3 crashes in a race he ends up winning and claims he is the best driver … because he won.

 

I am constantly amazed that there were so many people on a variety of level get your shit together kid to adultwho were resentful, angry, and unhappy enough to vote for someone who almost everyone recognized on some level is not really competent to be president as well as … well … just seems fundamentally “not quite right.”

 

I am constantly amazed by how easily so many people are accepting of “a hollow win” and a “hollow winner” with a seeming disregard for the fact that ‘blowing shit up’ <the country, institutions, other countries, healthcare, government> doesn’t have some consequences – some intended and some unintended.

I am constantly amazed that so many people have forgotten that how you win is significantly more important than the win in and of itself.

I am constantly amazed that there are so many people who have forgotten how rotten our healthcare system was before The Affordable Healthcare Act and how many people are blindly guiding us backwards toward what we know and hated.

 

I do not believe the country and the citizens are hollow but we have a president who is doing his absolute best to use his own hollowness to hollow us out.

 

Sigh.

 

As for healthcare.

 

I will pound away on this day in and day out until some politicians understands the economic & business view of a good healthcare system.

 

Maybe it would help them if they would think about what a “win” looks like.

 

It isn’t “accessible & affordable” <healthcare’s version of efficacy> it is a National non-Absenteeism day.

 

<whew … imagine if we actually had one day where everyone in America showed up for work, for class, in daycare, for whatever> and saw how productive Life, and America, could be>

 

A successful healthcare system from an economic point of view would be to have one day which every single worker in America showed up at work, on time, healthy and did a full day of work.

 

No one out sick.

 

No one out because someone in their family was sick and they needed to take care of them.

 

if only dreams wishesNo parent out because they had to take care of a sick child … or maybe even take care of their child because the daycare center supervisors were sick.

 

No child, our future generation of workers, misses school  and class.

 

No one out because senior dependents, or independently living seniors related to you, are healthy and receiving services they deserve.

 

No one out because the additional services , which far too often are described as ‘luxuries’ or entitlements, provide a support system which not only keeps someone working but healthy and less tired <rested: which translates into higher productivity when working>.

 

The consistency with regard to the way we miss the importance of health to a productive, happy economic powerhouse as a country is mind numbing to me. I do not disregard the moral imperative aspects but for all we talk about, over & over, the importance of freeing up businesses and economic growth and free market … the most powerful machine, invention and tool the American economy has is the people.

 

Shame on everyone for not discussing this.

 

While I love bashing Trump for his lack of understanding of what it takes to run a business let alone a country … this is a politician issue. I have never heard one, just one, politician ever make this point. This is basic ‘running a business 101.’

Stop talking about insuring healthcare to citizens of a country as a moral imperative <although it is> and start talking about the real tangible benefits of an effective healthcare system.

 

I can partially excuse Donald J Trump because he has never really run a business. His only business hands on experience was construction. In his mind, and experience, when 5 construction  workers didn’t show up one day he didn’t unhappy unsatisfied people life businesspay them and went to Home Depot and found 5 more workers. He had no additional expense and lost no productivity.

 

For the rest of us in the business world when we run a 300 person company and 5 people do not show up we still pay them and we have to decide whether we invest in bringing someone in and absorb the lost productivity of ‘lost labor’, less efficient labor and the machinations of dealing with an empty resource space. We lose productivity. We lose profit. We lose every time an employee is absent in a cascading way of consequences.

 

Sigh.

 

And, to be clear about a ‘free market’ concept, in general consumers do not win within the health insurance system. To point that out I will not take the lazy route of pointing out their hefty profits and ‘making money’ but rather point out HOW they make their money. Health insurance companies make their money by selling policies combined with filling as few claims as possible <and limiting the highest of those they are required to fulfill>. This translate into selling people things they don’t need or will never use, trying to avoid offering things they don’t particularly want to fulfill claim wise and charging a premium to someone who they believe will actually file a claim <this can either be a healthy person with a profile which indicates they are a ‘claim filer’ or a less-than-healthy person who will actually have needs>.

 

I point that out because health insurance companies are only in the “encourage attendance in Life” business as much as it encourages the non-filing of claims … not for any real economic productivity objective.

 

And … I point that out so small government people can get their head out of their asses on how government involvement can actually benefit people.

 

It is lazy to suggest the government shouldn’t be involved in health insurance for its citizens just as it is lazy to simply say the issue with health insurance companies is their profit motivation <it is more how they make their profits>.

 

 

republican healthcare repeal hurts

 

Regardless.

 

If this is winning the Trump way, I am already tired of winning.

 

 

if only republicans had a republican president leading

May 3rd, 2017

lead stand out color what matters

 

==========

 

“The price of greatness is responsibility.”

 

Winston Churchill

 

==============================

 

“In times like the present, men should utter nothing for which they would not willingly be responsible through time and eternity.”

 

Abraham Lincoln

 

===========

 

 

Well.

 

I have to imagine republicans wake up every morning dreading looking at their trump twitter stormsmartphones for the latest tweet and feeling a sense of despair that, in what should be their moment of triumph, they are faced with having a president who isn’t a leader.

 

Now.

 

I will not comment on whether Trump is a Republican or not … I will leave that to republicans to debate.

 

But I will comment on being a leader. Because if he were truly a Republican and he were truly a leader Trump would get the Republicans asses out of the healthcare bind they are in.

 

Any sane business leader with any business experience would view the current government American healthcare decision as one of two paths – fix it or kill it.

That same sane business leader would look at what is currently happening and say “oh shit, they are stuck in the wretched in-between trying to do a little of this and a little of that and ultimately creating a dead on the table Frankenstein.”

That same sane business leader would then decide it was time to step in, because that is what they get paid to do, and get everyone walking down one path and stop being in the Frankenstein building business .

 

Sure.

Politicians don’t think like business people. They don’t necessarily think like leaders. They more often think like middle managers in large organizations … “what can I do that doesn’t make too many people unhappy so I can keep my job.”

This means, more often than not, they build a lot of Frankensteins so they can cherry pick what they want to talk about to cover their ass and insure at least a part of everything they do is palatable to their constituents.

 

But here is the sling their ass is in right now. The only two viable paths that are possible for a good initiative are painful for Republicans.

Don’t kill it <don’t repeal> and they will get killed publicly.

Kill it <repeal> and they will get killed publicly.

 

It is quite possible that they don’t realize that even the wretched in-between, their Frankenstein, only offers getting killed too.

 

All I know is that a business person looking in at those inside this horrible situation would see that … well … they were in a horrible situation in which not only the decision makers were likely to get killed … but the people affected by the decision may not actually get the best decision because all the decision makers are getting squeezed.

 

All that said.

if only cloud

If the Republicans actually had a president who was truly a leader AND a republican … that leader would offer a path out <spoiler alert: I seriously doubt the current president is enough of a leader to do this>.

 

If I were a republican, and I were the president, I would walk over to the congress and tell congress to stop voting and stop talking with the press and , as a team, decide what the right thing to do was – whatever it was. And then I would tell them to give it to me and I would go on television <not twitter> and say “here is what we are going to do and why … this is my decision … this is my responsibility … this is what I believe will help make America great.”

I would place all the bloodbath on my shoulders … and take it off of my ‘kindred spirit’ Republicans shoulders.

 

Would I do this because I am a nice guy and I feel sorry for the bind that my fellow republicans put themselves in? Of course not.

 

I would do it because I am a leader and I know that presidents come and go but maintaining control of the congress is what really matters.

 

I would do it because, as a business person, I would see that my organization was stuck in a corner with no real good way out.

 

And … I would do it now because the earlier I do it the longer I have to manage the aftermath before the next election.

 

Now.

 

Donald J Trump is too much of a narcissistic idiot to see this pathway out.

And why do I add in the ‘idiot’?

 

Because this pathway out makes him a hero.

Contextually he has done nothing to date to show he can lead, that he can show contrition, that he can assume personal responsibility or that he can utter anything other than hyperbole & lies.

 

Therefore, to stand up and say “it doesn’t matter what you have heard over the past 8 years and who has said what … this is the situation and here is where we go from here” and articulate the choices, the decision, the rationale, the outcomes <good & bad> and the responsibility <with him and not the Republicans> would shelve almost all the past criticism because it was so far out of the existing character perceptions and he would get a ‘reset.’ In addition … it feeds into his desire to showcase ‘strong decision maker’ which seem burden responsibility those who haveimportant to him & his ego. And, lastly, I would assume every Republican in congress would owe him for getting their own ass out of the sling.

 

Some people call this “taking one for the team.”

 

I would call this “accepting the burden of responsibility.”

 

Republicans are screwed not because they put themselves in this horrible healthcare decision ‘non-win’ situation but because they now have a president who is not only not a republican <although they are stuck with the fact he chose to run under their banner> but is also not a leader.

 

All that said … here is the most disappointing aspect viewing this is a a business person. He is supposed to see things differently because he is a business person and not a politician. And he is failing everyone because he doesn’t seem capable of viewing this healthcare issue from a business perspective.

What do I mean?

 

  • the less absenteeism i have in my organization the more productive my business is.

 

  • the healthier my not-absentee employee base is the more productive they are <and, yes, someone with a pre-existing condition can be a highly productive healthy everyday employee>.

 

Trump claims to be a business guy and wants to make the economy grow … well … healthy people, healthy employees make businesses more productive, more happy, more profitable and more successful.

 

I offer daycare so that my employees are not distracted, show up to work on time, and can be fulfilled from a family perspective.

I offer family healthcare plans so my employees stay focused <because their children and spouses are healthier> and it decreases healthy employee absenteeism who may have had to leave to take care of family heath problems.

 

This is kind of business leader 101. This would seem to be ‘make America great again 101’. This would seem to prove that Trump is not only not a leader but doesn’t know shit about what is important in running an effective productive business.

 

Anyway. Here is what I do know.

 

Republicans are in a no win position and the only thing that really comes of that is that there will be no win for the people themselves.

 

Look.

 

America isn’t a business … it is more like a living organism. A president, while having some CEO-like qualities, doesn’t really have P&L objectives … more often it is “successfully breathing new life into the organism” objectives.

 

Trump wouldn’t understand a single thing I just said in that last paragraph. And while I have no particular love for what I think the Republicans are trying to do with healthcare I feel sorry for them that they finally got a ‘republican’ in the oval office and it is this person … one totally incapable of leading and being a leader. He is totally incapable of understanding the words of Churchill < The price of greatness is responsibility   > let alone embracing the behavior that embodies the words.

if only

Anyway.

 

Republicans have to be thinking … “<sigh> … if only.”

 

——

 

Author note:

 

I am not a republican, democrat or anything … I solely focus on what ideas would be good for America and its people.

I, personally, would fix The Affordable Healthcare program because I believe it is closer to being successful and ‘good for America’ then it is depicted in the political vitriol. However, if you choose to not ‘fix it’ you cannot have it both ways … you would have to kill it in order to eventually give what is best for the American people.

In the middle is a horrible place to be <with anything>.

 

I would remind everyone in congress of the words I opened with:

In times like the present, men should utter nothing for which they would not willingly be responsible through time and eternity.

—————————-

 

Enlightened Conflict