“… not even the best magician in the world can produce a rabbit out of a hat if there is not already a rabbit in the hat.”
=
Boris Lermontov
—
Ok. I admit. I often get a little crazy when I hear “well, you pulled that one out of your ass” <this generation’s version of pulling a rabbit out of a hat>.
Well. I apologize. Only 99%+ of the time I go crazy. I account for the less than 1% of the time to the fact sheer dumb luck can happen.
I say I go crazy because when someone makes a surprisingly good ‘in the moment decision’ or uncovers a relatively surprisingly insightful idea, in most cases, the fact they are surprising people does not mean they just made something up out of the ether. And pulling a rabbit out of a hat <or out of your ass> implies you created something from nothing.
Here is a Life truth, even a business truth, so maybe let’s just call it Truth: You cannot create something from nothing.
Sure. Sometimes the connections between ‘what was’ and ‘what ends up being’ are blurry <if not even visible and sometimes appears to come out of the proverbial ether>, but everyone needs to have a solid base of knowledge before making the connections <thinking or tangible things> to create something. That knowledge can be within <your own pea like brain and its experiences and thoughts> or without <tapping into other people or things>.
Anyway. Here is the full quote reference.
Livy Montagne:
“You’re a magician, Boris. To have produced all this in three weeks, and from nothing.”
—
Lermontov:
“… not even the best magician in the world can produce a rabbit out of a hat if there is not already a rabbit in the hat.”
Again. You can’t create something from nothing; you can only create something from something else <or something elses>.
Another Truth?
Wrap your head around this: Ideas exist … and don’t exist <simultaneously>.
Yup. Physicists have found something <particles and things that move around that we cannot see> can simultaneously exist and not exist. In other words, some things are capable of existing in several different states.
Any physicist can correct me, but I believe it is the uncertainty principle of quantum mechanics which suggests particles are allowed to travel along all paths and exist in all possible states simultaneously.
What changes uncertainty? The simple act of measurement. Measurement, or the simple recognition of what actually is, instantly forces it into just one path or state and it is no longer uncertain. I believe it is called something like ”collapse of the wave function‘” in physics.
Yeah. It is the same in thinking, doing or whatever.
Random knowledge collapses upon itself until it creates something. The ‘nothing’ is just a bunch of somethings yet to be consolidated.
I have been to far too many ‘brainstorming’ or ‘creative thinking’ or even ‘the power of visualization’ workshops <so many that my brain cannot storm and I cannot think straight let alone creatively> and I cannot visualize shit.
Every time I walk out of these mind numbing events I grab my copy of James Webb Young’s “Technique for Producing Ideas” <published in 1937 and still relevant today> and flip thru the pages to remind myself that ideation is all about cramming bits & pieces of ideas & information & thoughts into your head until you can either assimilate it into a ‘rabbit’ or you interact with someone else and inspire them to create a ‘rabbit.’
So. With that. Two thoughts.
Accumulate knowledge: the more you learn the more you can pull out of your ass <consistently>.
Practice: the more you use what you have learned the easier it is to pull something out of you ass.
Sorry. There is no such thing as divine inspiration. There is no such thing as pulling rabbits out of hats <unless there is already a rabbit there>. We all have a gazillion thoughts, observations, and information <parts, pieces or whole> bouncing around in our heads either in our subconscious or conscious mind. There are a myriad of possibilities existing with regard to possible outcomes.
The nothing is all these pieces and parts not assembled.
The something is when assembly is achieved.
Now. Not everyone is good at “assembling” or even implementing from the nothings floating around in their heads
but that is a different post for a different day. If you feed your mind, you will end up with a boatload of rabbits in your hat.
But, please, something from nothing? Not even a magician can do that.
Remember. Most people who do good things & say good things are not pulling a rabbit out of some hat … they have worked hard, thought hard & done the work necessary to insure there is already a rabbit in the hat.




I believe a creative spark needs some fodder. It doesn’t arise from nothing because, well, nothing begets nothing. There has to be something from which a spark can occur. Or as i quoted in my
This is the insidious uncomfortable ‘revising strategy once you have seen output’ discussion. I have had this debate so many times I think I could write a book <or I guess I could watch a slo-motion video of my head exploding>. What happens when a strategy changes in this way is it makes people think that creative thinking drives strategy. What also happens is that I laugh, throw something sharp, if I don’t have anything heavy, and say:



But new products are really important to existing businesses in that profits from new products tend to account for a substantial amount of the bottom line of businesses (note: there is a point to be made here about efficiencies and squeezing out profit from existing products in the market but that is for another day). We have all seen the simplistic surveys online showing “reasons why new products fail” as if CPG companies haven’t studied new products in depth. It’s a bit crazy. So, having pulled out an old folder with a bunch of notes scribbled in it about new products from my experience with P&G and other companies, let me say some things about innovations and new products. To be clear. I will share some dated information that I am too lazy to update mostly because I am 90% confident, in principle, the conclusions are the same today as they were then.
Technology is actually learning a lesson that the Consumer Packaged Goods industry learned a long time ago. More products can mean more sales, but you have to be smarter about your new product that you offer to the public. In 1964 there were about 1,300 new product introductions in supermarket/drug stores. In the early 1980s the packaged goods industries were introducing around 3000 to 5000 new products a year. By the 1990’s, we saw this number jump to about 18,000 to 20,000 and now we were over 25,000 a year. To be clear. Maybe only about 10% of new product introductions are truly new; for the most part they are extensions or additions to existing products/product lines (see opening image). The incredible thing about this phenomenal growth during that period (1960 to 2000ish) is that failure rates, while high, did not increase. It seems like consumers were finding space in their lives for five to 10 times more products per year than they were in maybe 1980. This suggests that the market likes to experience experiments as well as have been convinced specialty or ‘niche use’ has efficacy value. It’s like the culture has grasped the nature of change and finds value through experimenting with new products. But every business needs to remember with as much as 40%+ of new product ideas hitting the trash can, it’s just tough to swallow the failure rates and invest real money. In fact, I remember a number that there was an estimated 46% of all the resources allocated to product development and commercialization by US firms are spent on products that are cancelled or fail to yield an adequate financial return. There was an old study with some rough splits of innovation costs across stages in the new product process but basically it suggested for every $1million spent on product innovation, roughly only $150,000 is spent on exploration and screening research or even idea generation, i.e., the initial attempts to qualify the idea. This is kind of nuts. This also suggests ideas searching for a market rather than a market defining an idea. This whole section is something technology folk should ponder long and hard.
In the early stages of any new product project, we make many assumptions in order to justify the project.





