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Inevitabilities are not scheduled prophecies.
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I have said increased complexity increases the desire for increased simplicity for years if not decades. It is not a brilliant insight. It is simply an observation based on ‘every force has an equal opposing force’ attached to human desires. I say that because I recently heard the phrase “the great simplification” as in society will enter an era in which simplification will become the currency needed to navigate an increasingly complex world. Without the hyperbole, it is probably true (in some form or fashion). And with that said, therein lies the peril. Simplification does not solve complexity, all it may do is provide lily pads of exploration.
Therein lies the paradox of simplicity. For simplicity to be effective there needs to be complexity and complexity needs simplicity in order to have some progress.
The truth is that increased complexity increases the likelihood of something of a higher level to be created. So, while humans relentlessly pursue simplicity; biology and ecosystems relentlessly thrive on complexity. One almost has to wonder if this is the ultimate conflict in business. As an institution is more is more likely to thrive, the more it embraces complexity, and yet the humans within the institution do everything imaginable to simplify.
Which leads me to suggest maybe the optimal state is ‘complex enough to make business happy.’
“Complex enough” has some positive aspects in that it offers enough reality, but not too much to freeze everyone into indecision. But an incredibly important aspect is diversity because complexity demands a diverse response, which demands diversity within the response group, in order to be successful <complexity is a natural multiplier of both good and bad therefore a structure needs to be established to nudge and constrain complexity to the needs of the institutions>. And, yet, in today’s world everything feels extreme and full of binaries; not a celebration of the robustness of possibilities found in complexity. I am truly astonished by the deeply entrenched deterministic thinking that drives most of today’s narratives.
I am astonished because deterministic thinking is a blinkering force, the very opposite of rationality even though many people who espouse deterministic thinking believe themselves to be the most rational purveyors of ‘common sense.’ Deterministic thinking tends to seed polarization and distrust as people become entrenched in their vision of the future, or the vision of “what is the right thing”, of which neither is conducive to navigating a complex world. It is simplistic thinking which only drains the oil from a high-powered engine.
Which leads me to what I consider two of the foremost simplistic mistakes people will make in a complex world.
The first is I fear a world of decision making by data because what it may lead to is a number of nonsensical results as the outcome you get by plugging numbers into an equation without really thinking through the implications will only be to create nonsensical results. In other words, simplification leads to (harmful) nonsense.
The second is the complex social-economic system is not self-correcting or self-managing; sustained, self-conscious efforts are necessary to deal with the problems and they often must be maintained against strong resistance. To be clear, ‘efforts’ are rarely simple and ‘corrections’ are ongoing, i.e., “not put a plan in place and simply let it work.” Yeah. Social/economic issues demand complex solutions; not simplistic ones.
Ponder.