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“If you want to give God a good laugh, start telling him about your plans.”
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“The notion that we can’t do our jobs unless there are perfect conditions.
Objectives, target audience, key message, budget, timings, etc.
I mean yes, sure, we need those conditions to exist to do our thing well…
… but often they come in bits, due to the vagaries of organisational complexity.
Which means we’re always working in the context(s) of what we have right now.
And, by association, strategies can – and must – change given new information.
I know in theory we should get all the information beforehand, sure.
But in practice, flexing as we go is how 90% of the job actually tends to flow.”
Rob Estreitinho
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“It is optionality that makes things work and grow.”
Nassim Taleb
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Polycentric and quantum theory are different things, but today I mash them together to offer some thoughts on business. To be clear, Polycentric theory and Quantum theory belong to distinct fields and have their own specific applications and implications.
- Polycentric Theory: Polycentric theory is a framework in political science and economics that emphasizes the existence of multiple centers of power and decision-making within a system. It suggests that authority and governance should be dispersed among various levels and institutions rather than concentrated in a single entity. Polycentric systems often promote local autonomy and decentralized decision-making.
- Quantum Theory: Quantum theory, also known as quantum mechanics, is a branch of physics that deals with the behavior of matter and energy at the microscopic scale. It provides a mathematical framework to understand the fundamental nature of particles and their interactions, incorporating concepts such as superposition, uncertainty, and wave-particle duality.
So let me share some similarities:
- Non-linearity: Both theories challenge traditional linear approaches. Polycentric theory acknowledges the complex and nonlinear nature of decision-making, highlighting the interactions between multiple centers of power. Similarly, quantum theory describes the probabilistic behavior of particles emphasizing nonlinearity.
- Emergence and Interconnectedness: Both theories recognize the importance of emergent activity and interconnected systems. Polycentric theory suggests that complex systems generate emergent properties like self-organization and adaptive behavior. Quantum theory highlights entanglement where entangled system is one where the individual particles behave as an inseparable whole.
- Contextual and Relational Perspectives: Both theories consider the significance of context and relationships. Polycentric theory emphasizes the importance of local knowledge, cultural norms, and social relationships in decision-making. Quantum theory acknowledges that observations and measurements are context-dependent, and the behavior of particles is influenced by their interactions with the surrounding environment.
To summarize, duality, uncertainty, and entanglement are characteristics of polycentric theory, quantum theory, and business.

Which leads me to say that there is always a moment when you look around and all you see is, well, uncertainty or it feels like chaos or it feels impossible to discern any order in what is happening around you. Most of us then sit back and try and take a moment to try and think clearly because, generally speaking, the brain is programmed to find patterns and we get a bit desperate when mired in a world in which everything appears random. It is an unending struggle to bring some order to chaos – real and perceived. More often than not while preferring a pattern we find a point on which to focus. This is kind of our innate understanding of ‘polycentricity.’ Polycentric means in any given moment there is a center. Organizationally this will naturally occur, even within a hierarchy, as long as the ‘walls’ are permeable. I would argue it happens whether you want it or not (in suboptimal ways as people circumvent the system in the attempt to get shit done) and will happen in an optimal way if it is actually encouraged.
The idea of polycentric is important because centers can easily look after ‘order’ AND disorder pretty well and if the center is contextual (flows to the need/opportunity) that means freedom, agility & creativity follow it. Yeah. I just said Business is fluid (even organizationally). I believe people rarely think about business as a flow system even though we all agree that it is a permanently evolving entity, but a business is a flow of realities, many operating in dualities, with evolving centers of gravity to leverage. Regardless, the allure of quantum is the idea there are multiple histories and multiple ‘realities’ all existing simultaneously. Ponder that for a bit with regard to business. This means history is being written situation by situation and decision by decision. That your existence resides on multiple planes, and dimensions, and you are simply vectoring, not guiding. And maybe that’s the larger point – vector versus guide. You accept your business has multiple histories, not just one, and its legacy is shaped not created.
Which leads me to confusing chaos with catastrophe.
I don’t believe business actually endures chaos (as defined by complexity theory). There can be disorder, but within the confines, construct, of a business the gyre can widen but not fall apart. Unless there is a catastrophe or catastrophic event.
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
Yeats
Quantum, or complexity, speaking, what does chaos look like? The trajectory wanders around forever in state space. It can never close or cross itself on one plane, yet, across planes (spiraling) its trajectory can. It remains within a confined space (constrained by its own entropy/energy) and is constantly pivoting on new points (never replicated). Kind of polycentric at all times AND continuously moving through different realities, i.e., possibilities. Its trapped yet disorderly. I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that this idea is quite similar to Donella Meadows leverage points. In this case
they are pivot points for polycentric behavior. Some people may associate these with people (influencers in an organization). I will not. I believe they are simply pivot points made up of people interacting with systems within a specific context. This means disorganized behavior in a given situation, is not chaotic. It is simply interacting elements not in alignment toward some stated purpose, but buried within it is order (usually tied to some unstated objective, i.e., a polycentric state). Technically speaking this means the specific motion and trajectory of the activity is unpredictable in detail, yet, it always stays coherent to the attractor (some objective/vision) and always moves through the same subset of states. That narrowness of activity accounts for the order hidden in chaos and explains why its essence never changes. We may not be able to explain where the order comes from, at least in an analytical sense, but the order exists nonetheless. If you are good in business, you can feel the pulse within chaos; you just cannot see it. To the everyday schmuck it is a state of disorder. To the scientist it resides in the space between order and disorder. Technically it only appears random, looks erratic and unstable yet it contains patterns. The good news for a business is order typically resides within a confined space and is governed by a fairly rigid set of ‘rules’ <it can only act in certain ways> so it can be manageable, or at least stuff can get done, in some sense. This is most likely true because unlike scientific theory, business tends to have, and create, some boundaries and constraints. So, while there may be the appearance of disorder, and oscillation- waves – occurring in endless loops inevitably there is some sense of equilibrium and, hence, some coherence.
Which leads me to make a note of the role technology plays in a quantum business.
Technology offers the velocity to advantages (even tiny ones). It also offers velocity to disadvantages and stupid shit (even tiny ones). I say that because technology increases fluidity and decreases fluidity, in other words, it can be the friend AND the enemy to coherence. So when we speak of fluidity and liquid we need to pay attention to the content. This gets tricky because far, far, too often we speak about the ‘next natural step for this system/business’, but fluidity is rarely about steps and more about evolution in motion. Therefore, words like “framework” or ‘navigation’ or ‘redirect’ become even more important. Even things like collective intelligence and collective wisdom and collective principled behavior become even more important. But, to circle back to quantum principles, order will exist but the sense of chaos only increases with technology. Yeah. It will both highlight leverage points, polycentric moments, and encourage multiple realities or expand asymmetrical perceptions and focus. The truth is polycentricity works better with some focus driven by technology and, yes, at exactly the same time that polycentricity is more difficult because of the increased ‘noise’ created by technology.
made.
Which leads me to end by suggesting I imagine part of what I am suggesting with polycentricity and quantum business is we have to go from this crazy, fragmented, multitasking life that we live to one where we pay more attention to connectedness and the whole. In doing so it will make any perceived chaos fleeting and navigating complexity is possible.
Well, this was fun, but let’s get serious. Most businesses have no interest in multiple centers of gravity or in multiple realities. Business wants to get shit done and they want a center of efficiency and effectiveness in one reality and that one reality which delivers against specific objectives. So what most businesses do is impose centers an attempt to impose a reality. They create steering committees, task forces, assign the specific group, and ask everyone to implement a process – typically a best practice. Simplistically they take a reductionist attitude toward everything that I wrote about polycentric and quantum business. And maybe that is my point. One of the largest issues the business faces today is its inclination toward reducing things rather than expanding things. Running businesses as if pragmatism outweighs any possibilities. I would be remiss if I didn’t point out polycentricity and quantum thinking are both grounded in multiple possibilities, as in, multiple realities are possible. Ponder.
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Fun fact about quantum particles to think about with regard to people:
“All quantum particles can be classified as either fermions or bosons. Fermions are territorial hermits. Which means you can ever occupy the same quantum state simultaneously. This accounts for the orderly way that electrons fill the orbital shells around atoms waiting their turn one at a time like polite people taking their seats in the same row of a theater. Fermion’s tendency to avoid one another ultimately yields the basic laws of chemistry, the structure of the periodic table, the rules for chemical bonding between atoms and the behavior of magnets. Bosons have the opposite kind of personality. They’re gregarious. No limit to how many can I occupy the same quantum state simultaneously. In fact they prefer crowds. The more populated a state, the more attractive it becomes to others.” (Steven Strogatz)



Now. There are gobs of great books on how business uses gamification to manipulate workers. Yes. I said “manipulate.” Business is infamous for suggesting everything they do is to motivate workers. Its bullshit. Motivation is intrinsic and incentives are extrinsic. Yeah. There can be some blurring on what I just said, but generally speaking, business, and we as a society, would be a shitload better off if we just looked around at all the incentives and thought about whether we really believe those incentives, and prizes/rewards, are actually good. To be clear. If we did businesses would shit, politicians would panic and society would be seriously discombobulated.
power), want it to stop breaking down. Well. They want it only to ever break the way they want it to break. So, construct, i.e., incentives, get ratcheted up. And it’s not like the prizes get any better its just that the penalties seem to be harsher if you don’t go along with the system incentives – you think wrong, you do wrong, you act wrong and the system, and society, relentlessly suggests that is bad – for you. Look. The system creators needed to stuff to get done so they crafted a system to ‘motivate’ people to do what they needed to do so that the institutions could get the stuff done they wanted to get done. And today is no different. They are worried their stuff will not get done so they scurry about telling people what is important and why the system incentives shouldn’t be abandoned. Sometimes they point out the visible obvious ones and sometimes the slyly nudge the subtle incentives around. Doesn’t matter. All incentives are used by people in power.
This is about the future of business (not the future of work). Significance. Significance may seem like an odd word to choose with regard to business. Significance is akin to meaning in its wider sense. The word mingles meaning and importance referring to the underlying ideas or implications that give to words, deeds, symbols, actions, or events of a special relevance. Significance may also be used in the specific sense suggesting a need to determine which of several possibilities is most relevant. (Hayakawa: Choose the Right Word).

Business should always be conscious in the effort to balance the interests of all stakeholders including investors, employees, customers and partners/suppliers. Losing the interest of any of these segments will diminish the overall value creation or, at minimum, limit its potential. To support this point, it was German businessman Heinrich Henzler who suggested that business should be seen as serving all the people not just shareholders or even employees. Henzler called it a social balancing act arguing that business should always accept that homelessness, illiteracy, and other social ills are not just only morally unacceptable, but also economically harmful. Drucker said something similar when he spoke of in and of society and it is not possible to have a healthy business in a sick society. Stewart Brand offered the idea “in the long run saving yourself requires saving the world.” The truth is business can bear a considerable social involvemnet AND achieve its business financial objectives because of its long-term benefits to the business and economy itself, i.e., save the world and you are saved.

Individualism, and the overriding belief that everyone is solely responsible for their own success or failure, is very much a uniquely American characteristic. And individualism’s hero, if there is such a one, would be Ralph Waldo Emerson. When you hear a self-help expert adamantly stating if you change your way of thinking, you will change reality, that’s Emerson. It is all captured in his essay “Self-Reliance” (1841). Generally speaking, good stuff, but there is a bit of a “do what you believe is right instead of blindly following society” which tinges individualism and in how ‘self’ gets framed and THAT has had ripple consequences for decades, i.e., “me” always knows what is best for ‘me’. To be clear. I firmly believe in hard work, accountability for self and self-reliance.
This is about emptiness and business.
scenarios, maybe some scenarios you weren’t the best skilled to handle, are the ones that empty you. And they are very (very) often scenarios business puts you in. in addition, business justifies not paying people on an ongoing basis, post working at business, BECAUSE they believe business future is unforeseen and they worry people will want to see a linear cause & effect. Business won’t and workers won’t and numbers won’t. But if you have injected a good dose of self-reliance into your daily acumen, and worked hard, the business is less empty today because of what you did yesterday. Maybe that’s why when someone is asked why they are empty now, they get annoyed. Ponder.
Success can be a, well, a deceitful sonuvabitch.
Therefore, if all I do is focus on the win I will reflect with little true critiquing and most likely remain a madman and incompetent <this is actually called
incompetence>.



The world has become a confusing swirl of realities. A mixture of fantastical thinking, alternative universes, and an absurd mix of selectively used facts/data points. The urge for clarity—for a logical articulation of what we’re experiencing, of a mosh pit of realities world suddenly beyond our understanding, is never stronger than in moments of fantasy realities. Of course, by definition, fantasy realities refuse logic, living in a space beyond comprehension, beyond reason.
Common sense got flipped on its head. Anything is possible meant it was possible. We became unshackled, free to indulge in our own opinions with fewer and fewer fetters in the forms of facts, rationality, and reason. We began creating reality out of fantasy grounded in, uhm, ‘reason.’ But this reason was grounded in our own truths which made reality something you were free to construct on your own. At some point it seems like the majority of people just rejected the claims of reason and rationality, and reality, and began to embrace fantasies. As a consequence, experts got thrown under the bus. Fantasy realities demand rejection of expertise, okay, well, the expert advice that didn’t agree with our own opinions that is. This became significantly easier to do the moment we started attaching so called experts with whatever bias we wanted to insert. We began attacking credentials and everyone was on the payroll of someone. At least in our reality so we could craft the reality we want (unfettered by facts).
Nostalgia has been turned into a pathological ideological tool. Nostalgia’s vague outlines gain mythical concreteness as we apply it to our fantasy realities. The problem with nostalgia is that its defining quirk is a weakness for illusion and delusion. As a consequence of this nostalgic whimsical thinking, we begin to believe that we have an accepted standard of reason and truth, but unfortunately a significant portion of the population actually becomes less reality based and more myth-addled. Yeah. it gets worse. Fantasy realities demand a ‘bad guy,’ an enemy, a “reason” why nostalgia isn’t exactly perfect and why the present isn’t using all the perfect nostalgia. That enemy is always tied to some mysterious manipulator. That’s bad, but even that gets worse. If manipulators lurk everywhere, well, we start believing that evil lurks everywhere. We all begin to feel like we are all holding onto an overhead hand hold on a careening driverless bus.
people with fantasy realities and those random beliefs have been incredibly resilient and enduring. They have had the ability to morph into other forms to fit into different groups as time and context have changed. This can partially be explained in that in the past (and worryingly too often in the present) most of the reality-based people typically ignored the fantastical thinking, if not were amused by it, as the quacks, charlatans and paranoid conspiracists pushed and pulled and encouraged people to believe their fantasy realities. Uh oh. Over time the quacks, charlatans and paranoid conspiracists carved out ‘believable-enough’ slivers of fantasy factions and we saw more people gravitate towards them. ‘Believable-enough’ is key here because as with most things, for every force, there is typically an equal and opposing force. In this case the slivers of fantasy realities grew as a force as the world became more complex, more un-understandable and, consequently, more difficult to explain, i.e., less believable. What were once vague unbelievable dangers now seemed very very real and believable. From those seeds grew fantasy realities. Yeah. I just rationalized fantasy realities with reason.
Which leads me to sensemaking.
Carse suggests, “the smallest unit of change is a conversation.” The more conversations that take place with regard to reality, the less likely some fantasy can impersonate reality. The social process, the conversations, make everyone an individual and, yet, part and parcel of all reality (Hanzi Freinacht calls this being a transvidual). Try this thought on for size. If we encourage sensemaking, conceptually we all become accountants. Not in the traditional sense, as in dollars and cents, but instead you keep account of political trends, ideological thinking, military actions, religious leadership, technological developments, communities, local news/activity and even the price of wool, oil, cheese, milk and tea, i.e., reality. In some way you keep account of the ten thousand threads that make up the tapestry of reality. Yes. That can sound a bit daunting. A bit overwhelming. A bit like, well, it makes fantasy realities sound a bit more appealing. I will end there because, as well know, our favorite indulgence always looks appealing – the Haagen Daz ice cream, the double chocolate cake, even the favorite brand of shoes – but we know we can’t afford it all the time because it isn’t healthy; for the body, mind or wallet. Fantasy realities are exactly the same. Appealing but unhealthy. Ponder.
Here’s what I mean. Pick your culture/political/society version of this question (the big one in the present is obviously, again, Trump) and the obvious answer to this question is that most objective thinking people would not see this one thing as a huge bias against one over another. I don’t care about the question, just as a generalization as soon as you see this question, and attached to ‘hypocrisy’, I can almost guarantee it will be the beginning of a superficial dance in which objectivity will offer the same answer over and over again (“it’s not the same”) and the lazy instigator will offer the same answer over and over again (“bias” and “hypocrisy”). That is objective reality. Unfortunately, that answer would quickly gets you to the rabbit hole opening. The rabbit hole opening is “ohhhhhhhhhhhhhh, you say that that’s because you’re biased.” And down we go the hole.

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technology is asymmetrical. Technology has become not only greater than the people who created it, but the humans who use it. Yeah. While pundits dance on the head of the “what is intelligence” pin, the 
purposefully designed to better society. And this is where things begin to go awry. The intellectually immature tend to reduce the design while the intellectually mature tend to expand the design. This becomes even more true when that education falls under the construct of social education. Reductionism is actually harmful to society mostly because it doesn’t foster critical and conceptual thinking (which I tend to believe most people believe is important in a complex dynamic world).
I am a business person who talks about societal issues through a business acumen filter. In almost every business model, interaction and connectivity is seen as a bargaining process between efficiency & effectiveness, pragmatism an& possibilities and intellectual & productivity. This gets exacerbated in a more interdependent world in which the task of calculating a utility function is almost virtually impossible. The truth is that a business is both rational and habitual, both intellectual and emotional, and it only progressing through bargaining on those issues. A business is organized around a central premise in which the form and direction of microactions are conceived to spring from a combination of habits and experiences that allow for thoughtful probabilistic thinking and are open to change. A society is the same. At any given point we will never have enough information, therefore, any decision a society makes will be some bargain. That bargain improves the higher the social intellect of the grander society.

Well. Certainly less full of hope if they aren’t completely empty.
reconciliation, words of peace, words of promise, yet continue to find enemies who need to be stopped rather than people who need to be invited into the dialogue.
That is a bigger thought than just a wacky tv show. If we ask all people to stop “believing in unicorns” do people lose any chance of reaching what they hope for? If we ask people to stop ‘believing in unicorns’ are we asking people to abandon Hope?
Look. It’s a hard time for everyone these days, but it is a particularly hard time for Hope & dreams right now. Unfortunately, far too many people are being encouraged to think of hope & dreams as some big, fluffy cloud that is surrounded by rainbows and unicorns. Because of that we tend to dismiss the ‘unicorns’ and tend to focus on the fact real horses, zebras and gazelles are dying.