Iran middle east trust & allies

yes maybe no
















I have been watching & listening to the rhetoric being tossed around with regard to the recent Iran nuclear deal.



thinking idiot


Suffice it to say the Americans look & sound like idiots.


And I say this as a normally proud American.





Here are some thoughts to ponder as you not only listen to the screams of silliness surrounding the recent Iran nuclear deal … and judge for yourself.




It is not an American deal.





I would like to remind everyone there were 6 countries, 6 besides USA, at their side of the table facing Iran.



Switzerland chaired <not USA>.


American politicians are running around acting like it was a deal between Iran and the USA.






The second thing I remind everyone is that US sanctions, alone, against Iran were NOT effective until USA negotiated participation from other global partners in 2009. Until that point the sanctions were aggravating and constricting … but not crippling.


When major economies were aligned against Iran the sanctions became crippling and the economy and citizens were affected.


Once the citizens were affected the nuclear armament became an issue of the people not just the government.







This was not a deal between the USA and Iran.



nuclear bomb test


It is not a treaty <it is a nuclear disarmament> agreement.







This kind of deal is not one negotiated between friends. This was not a diplomatic treaty. This was simply a negotiation between two <one side with multiple components> unfriendly but respectful negotiators.



Policy negotiation doesn’t have to be done between friends or friendly nations.



No one suggests that this established a formal diplomatic relation … all it suggests is that governments, regardless of their ideology or style, have the right to govern as they deem appropriate unless it affects others negatively.



The deal was an agreement between two parties as to actions with regard to the development of nuclear weapons.



No treaty.


Just an agreement.



Suffice it to say that US rapprochement with Iran does not mean a US-Iranian alliance, any more than US-Soviet rapprochement meant a US-Soviet alliance.



It just means a coherent working relationship.





It is about nuclear weapons … nothing else.




Unlike everything else in American congress this negotiation and deal is focused … and focused on one thing – nuclear weapons.



The deal was never about hostages, it was about nukes.


The deal was never about human rights, it was about nukes.


The deal was never about funding terrorism, it was about nukes.



And there are a bunch of folks who seem that the only deal they would be happy with is one where we get everything we want and Iran gets nothing.





At least their words seem to imply that.


There’s no country in the world that would agree to that <not even USA>.


So short of military posturing or actual bombing raids what is a realistic plan or deal being offered?





So when I hear “why didn’t we deal with terrorism & funding” … or “how could we not negotiate freeing hostages” I scratch my head a little.


Are we that naïve?


Are we that bad at understanding good negotiation?



shut up oh“This deal was so bad, the Obama Administration was unable to secure the release of four American hostages who remain locked-up in Iranian prisons.

America, Israel and the world deserve much better.”






I sometimes think that the American Congress is so used to bolting on items to a main bill & project they seem to forget that is not really the most efficient & effective way to create a deal.





It is about not being naive.




This one is almost the craziest … and is absolutely the one which makes America look the stupidest … and shows a lack of respect.



People screaming at the top of their lungs about the naivete of the deal <combined with a ludicrous “why should we trust Iran” shrill scream>. The agreement is based not trust but controls. After all … agreements like this are not made with friends therefore there is no foundation of trust to build within the agreement.





There were 6 countries at the table negotiating with Iran.



Do we in the USA truly believe all these other countries are idiots and have no security issues or are concerned about terrorism or Iran having nuclear capabilities?


oh no 3

How can anyone convince their fertile and paranoid mind that China, Russia, France, Great Britain and Germany have been duped along with everyone else that this is an avenue worth pursuing?



Nuff said.






It is a deal done with smart people on both sides of the negotiating table seeking to get what they want.




Smart people are smart.


Deals are negotiating and compromising.



Iran wanted crippling sanctions stopped.


The other side of the table wanted nuclear weapon development stopped.


Almost anything else is negotiable.



What was achieved?


Reduced uranium enrichment, inspectors on the ground, reduced reactors, reduced, reduced, and reduced … and China, Russia, and American NATO allies aligned on the agreement.



What’s the naysayers alternative?


Sanctions that the rest of the world will no longer honor and the further radicalization of an isolated regime <and further anger at USA>.



I tend to believe a group of smart people from a variety of countries assessed their needs, security as well as economic, and smartly negotiated a deal which outlines a path to which both sides move forward with the hope <possibility> that nuclear arms development is avoided and economy <wealth development> is encouraged.


watch uh oh shit



It is not about forever.




This one kills me.



I almost double up in laughter when I hear things like “we are just buying time … it is only a ten year deal and then they will pursue a nuclear weapon … unacceptable.”


I have one thought for everyone … and only one.



Would any country ever agree to anything for perpetuity? <rhetorical question: no>.





It is about the power of a good economy and increasing the power of people.



Money, the economy, and strength of the people <versus the government> are directly related.



The Iranian people are tired of the status quo and have waited long enough for progress. With sanctions removed it seems like there is a path to a smarter approach that empowers the Iranian private sector, Iranian society and the Iranian community in general … to spur progress and keep pressure on their regime.



The lifting of certain sanctions supports forward movement in the struggle for people power and democracy in Iran.


The removal of sanctions is not necessarily a gift to the Iran regime <and terrorism and nuclear arms development> but rather it is a formidable threat to the Iranian leadership.



Lifting of the sanctions doesn’t set back the advance of freedom … it actually advances the possibility of freedom <among the people>.




I have two thoughts with regard to economy and power:




1.       One of the most powerful instruments of power to the people is Capitalism.



As soon as people see what they could have it is almost next to impossible to go back.



By opening the Iran economy and culture to Capitalism it not only alters the economic landscape toward people <citizens> but also alters the geopolitical landscape in America’s <and other democratic driven countries> favor.


<by the way … if Americans do not agree with this then they are rejecting the whole concept of a people-driven society>



genaertional attitudes powerless


2.      A strong Iran economy <not weapons or military> alters the power balance in the region.



Let me explain.

Set aside Israel for a minute <because surrounded by countries emotionally appalled by Judaism and therefore are constantly residing in the face of peril – whether Iran has nuclear weapons or not> and look at the region.



A strong Iran economy means one of the largest most progressive countries suddenly starts competing against Egypt, Saudi Arabia a well as a number of countries in the region for … well … business <imports/exports/manufacturing/etc.>. Of course the countries around Iran hate this deal … not because it potentially creates a nuclear arms race but rather because economically it shifts the balance of power as Iran becomes a significant player in the region … almost overnight.





I am done.


I do not think it is a great deal but I believe it is THE deal.
In conclusion.




What I don’t understand <beyond politicking of course> how someone cannot give credit to this administration and the Secretary of State for playing an important role in a fairly significant foreign policy initiative.




And Obama has been gracious in the diplomatic victory. Russia’s role in facilitating the successful Iran agreement was acknowledged as critical despite some saber rattling.

According to NBC News, “President Barack Obama telephoned Russian President Vladimir Putin …to thank him for his part in the recent nuclear deal with Iran, the White House said.

The President thanked President Putin for Russia’s important role in achieving this milestone, the culmination of nearly 20 months of intense negotiations, the White House said in a statement.

It added that Obama and Putin agreed to remain in close touch as the Iran deal is implemented and would work together to reduce tensions in the Middle East, particularly in Syria.

Russia was one of the six major powers that negotiated the deal reached with Iran on Tuesday in Vienna.

The others were the United States, Germany, the European Union, China, Britain and France.”






The only thing certain with regard to foreign policy … ok … the only two certain things … are:




1.      Uncertainty.

 maybe we have no idea

The dynamics of people, cultures, leaders and needs are uncertain at best. Unintended consequences are more the norm than intended consequences.

Therefore those who are ‘certain’ in judgement in the here and now are … well … silly. They are guessing at best.




2.      Someone will be right.



When deals and foreign policy are completed there are stated conclusions and hopes. There are those who summarize that which was done and those who state their judgements <guesses>. Years from now some will be right <and pound their chest with indignant ‘I told you’ and those who will step back and wonder where their conclusions went astray.
In the end.



If you don’t agree with anything I have shared read what Federica Mogherini is a young energetic Italian diplomat who took part in the deal negotiation wrote in a fabulous editorial in The Guardian:






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Written by Bruce