exit and dominoes (my thoughts on Brexit)

 The Palace of Culture and Science is illuminated brexit engkand


“It’s an ill wind indeed that blows no good at all.”


<’Tis an ill wind that blows nobody any good. Someone profits by every loss; someone is benefited by every misfortune

Dictionary of Phrase and Fable. 1898>




When asked what I believe … I believe the best thing is to dissolve the eurozone as it currently exists. Similar to the Caribbean solution there could possibly end up being euro-regions with their own currency and governmental alignments (with regard to economy) but I would dissolve it.




Regardless. I also believe it will fail even if it isn’t dissolved.

Bruce McTague 2012






England leaving the EU.  This is bigger than England … this is about dominoes.


This is the first time any member of the 28-nation EU has chosen to leave, or ‘secede from’, the EU. And it will have repercussions for both Great Britain and the EU and the US and the world’s economy.


It will have repercussion for any number of things.

No one can truly predict the future state.


England should be fine … at some point … but people who point to the past success of an independent England will be mistaken because <my prediction> Scotland will now break away as an independent nation <if EU remains for them to go to>.


USA will benefit. Mostly because it is stable, strong and dependable … while the EU overall will have more questions than answers.


Europe will not benefit.


Here is what everyone seems to be missing in the entire exiting the European Union discussion <that asshat Trump included>… is the world safer with EU or not? <i will answer that later in this post>


I personally believe this is the first domino of the EU break up. I admit. I never saw this coming. Well. I kind of did. Back in 2012 I wrote the following in my ‘question of an ongoing eurozone’:


intent help flaws self best

Because I mistakenly thought it was a brilliant idea … but I was naive.


I selfishly thought the brilliance was having one currency when traveling.


My naïve belief was it was going to create a super-country centered around a common currency and creating a ‘super-economy’ to balance America, a growing Asia, emerging countries <Africa> and, at that time, I thought Russia.


Well.  Silly me. I ignored <or maybe better said … I was oblivious> to the fact to be truly successful there were three structural components necessary … currency, economic and political.


Without alignment on all three the Eurozone idea was doomed for a long struggle if not dismal failure.


I wish I had seen this following thought from then Chancellor of Germany Helmut Kohl  in 1991:


“Political union is the essential counterpart to economic and monetary union. Recent history, not only in Germany, teaches us that it is absurd to expect in the long run that you can maintain economic and monetary union without political union.”


The EU is, and was, a flawed concept implemented in a flawed fashion.




As Britain exits the EU here is the potential falling domino scenario.


The economy. Whew. Should the EU now breakup the rise of nationalism increases almost out of survival instincts. Globalization takes on an entirely new look … hundreds of smaller fragments vying for success all the while stability is not dictated by EU/China/USA but rather China & USA are the two legs of the stool with hundreds of different sizes gnats hovering over them.




In the here & now.

The top priority has to be to secure economic stability for United Kingdom. But sit back and watch how the economic vultures start lurking around the EU still breathing body. Economically the entire EU as well as Britain is going to be fighting maybe not for its Life … but certainly for Life as it exists today.


And all that does is impact … well … global safety and security.


When individual interest trumps the interest of a larger whole … well … conflict increases … and increase exponentially as the number of player increase on the playing field. Think of it like the old Rollerball movie.


Global stability will … well … no longer be as stable. It will most likely take on a new, different type of ‘managed chaos.’

And global stability will be challenged by increased conflict.


Conflict between competeing economies <and currencies>.


Conflict for global advantage.


Conflict for resources.


Imagine all of that I just said with regard to Britain’s leaving the EU if it pertained to the overall breakup of the 28 country EU. Especially the last one … conflict for resources.


danger wrong wayI begin this point by saying … ignore climate change at your own peril.

Climate change indirectly affects economies through access , or loss of access, to resources. The EU softens an individual country’s challenges with regard to resources <heavy droughts, lack of water in general, lack of food sources, etc.> management. Without the EU individual country’s resources will be restricted by their own boundaries … therefore… any resource crisis will potentially create desperate measures to resolve. That is called ‘war.’ Just remember … more wars have been fought over resources, like water and access to water, than religion, ideology or anything else.



It will certainly take some time for the UK to establish a new relationship with Europe and the rest of the world. So market and economic volatility can be expected as this process unfolds.

Just as it will take some time for the EU to establish a new relationship … well … with itself.


Britain’s economy is fundamentally strong so it will not crumble <but the suggestion it will rise to dominate the world as it did in the 1700’s is silly>.


But it subtly changes the dynamics of a global economy. And subtle changes are often like tectonic plates in which there are volcanoes, earthquakes and some inevitable major repercussions.





The reason why Trump likes this is because he believes in success out of chaos. He has a warped vision of a competitive business environment in which if everyone is fighting, and the more who fight the better, the stronger the ultimate outcome.

That is his belief.


The reality reflects something different. In his world the few succeed, the few prosper, the few dominate the many.


And that, my friends, is what most likely happens if the EU fails.


And while I predicted it would, and will, I also suggested dissolving it so that some smart people could actually create the new norm rather than have the global entities scramble to create the new norm.



The voting & voters.




The voting & voters.


Overall there is a true misunderstanding or lack of understanding with regard to global trade and the global economy. And we will never reach a point where the everyday schmuck sitting at the kitchen table looking at their own horrible bank account draining bills to pay will ever truly understand. But voters vote, mostly, with the kitchen table thoughts n mind, not the globalization truth that exists.


The Brexit vote was a naïve vote. One driven mostly by individual thoughts.


And to make the point clearer … it was truly the middle aged kitchen table voter … because almost 75% of the 25&under aged voter voted to remain in EU. The young voted with the future in mind and the older voted with the past in mind.  vote young




In the USA it is kind of like the overall discussions of NAFTA and any other globalization trade deal or trade laws. From the kitchen table they look anti-American … yet … they create lower prices for us to put shit on the kitchen table and , in general, while they shift some jobs away from the US they also create jobs IN the US. that is the way a global economy works.


Individual countries & economies ebb & flow if they are tapped into the grater whole of a global economy.


That is what Britain now has to deal with.


And, ultimately, if you are considering Trump … that is what you need to deal with.


Britain leaving the EU was not a smart choice. But, in my eyes, it was inevitable.

The non-smartest thing was that it happened this way and wasn’t a planned exit.


I am not suggesting this is the end of the world as we know it. It is possibly just the beginning of a new look for the globalization economy world. One that may be more dynamic in spurts and more challenged at other times. Entities like the EU “flattened” economic swings. Maybe we miss the highs a little bit but we also avoid the massive lows. If only for this point we would miss the EU if this is the beginning of the end.


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Written by Bruce