“A million to one chance but it might just work.”

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Terry Pratchett

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Taking chances.

We all take chances. Well. We convince ourselves we do.

smart risk taking may workSome of us are willing to take chances when it is a 90% likelihood <or we feel like it is a 90% likelihood> of success.

That’s not really taking a chance.

Some of us are willing to take a chance when it is somewhere above a 50% likelihood.

That has chance involved.

Some of us look at the likelihood & probabilities and even though say it may look like a million to one odds, in that moment, we decide ‘it just may work’.

That’s taking a chance.

Suffice it to say, how you take chances, and how often, says a lot about who you are as a person. Okay. How about it sends a message out to everyone surrounding you and they look at you as some type of person?

Someone who constantly thrives on million to one chances scares the shit out of people.

Someone who constantly thrives on ‘almost certainty’ chances bores the shit out of people <which is a poor leadership quality>.

The gap between those two things is massive. It is a black hole of chance and choices so deep it can eat you up if you are not careful. More careers have disappeared in this black hole than can be counted. And because so many have disappeared the majority of people lean toward ‘certainty’ in actions and behavior. This obviously leads to mediocrity and mediocrity leads to self-disgust <in some form or fashion>. Disgust may be a harsh word, but it is the unfortunate shadow of self-disappointment. Where ongoing disappointments stands … disgust is never far away.

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impatient think question look“… do you ever get so disgusted with yourself, like you can not believe how stupid and thoughtless you are and it’s so frustrating because you keep telling yourself that you’ll do better next time but then next time rolls around and the same thing keeps happening and you end up in this pattern of mediocrity.”

(via anawkwardbreed)

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I am certainly not suggesting seeing “it just may work” as standard operating procedure.

But. I always remind people you don’t know what you don’t know and once the marbles start rolling it is difficult to predict where they will go. In other words, how well, or poorly, you adapt and react can change the odds moment by moment. What may look like a ‘million to one’ in one moment may look more like a 50/50 chance moments later.

“It just might just work” has some optimism. The ‘just’ & ‘may’ suggests no false optimism but rather an acceptance that there is huge risk, the odds are against you, but you are willing t play the game and see how it ends.

Now. This is not only a personal thing, but also a generational, age, thing.

Older business people have created this wacky attitude of a false security of behavior predict Brainpredictability. And they take refuge in this attitude tending to be excessively cautious under the guise of ‘it will not work’ <based on my worldly wisdom> rather than viewing things as ‘it just may work.’

Security ranks higher than risk taking. Unfortunately, this means that many of these same people, and their businesses, lose out as they lack the courage to make changes or adapt to a changing environment <which actually impacts the odds >. False security of predictability often leads to missing experiences that bring necessary change.

Risk taking is usually considered a characteristic of youth. Young people seemingly never hesitate to try new activities, to move to new places, to change routines & to challenge the status quo. I believe it is not based on immaturity or lack of experience, but rather they can often view a situation or scenario with a different eye and therefore derives different ‘chance’ to the potential outcomes.

Personally? I love when young people in business do this and I encourage them to articulate their thinking as well as possible. My objective is to view it as they see it through their eyes. And once I have achieved that … I then assess ‘chance’ based on that view <rather than the initial view I may have had>.

2 things come of this:

1.    Invariably I find the odds are truly different after listening. They see things we don’t see and it creates a different path of possibility. It may not shift the odds of success from million to one to certainty but by listening my assessment of the chance ratio changes.

2.    Within the conversation I can actually convince them that it truly is a million to one chance and that it ‘just may not work’ without sounding like an old curmudgeon who doesn’t listen or doesn’t want to explore new ways of doing things. In other words, I change the context of their thinking, not their thinking.

Anyway.

“It just may work.”

Far too often older managers in business refuse to say this let alone even think it. And thinking it is half the battle. Brain activity, thinking muscles, increases with challenges & new activities and new experiences challenge established ways of thinking about life & business.

You know what? “It just may work” isn’t really about risk taking or being risk adverse it is about thinking and thinking contextually about possibilities.

Too often older people associate possibilities with risk taking. And while predictability brings a sense of security it also means you lose out on the rich experiences of thinking, curiosity & exploring. And maybe that is why young people get so cranky with older business people.

It’s not that they don’t see older managers take risks, it is that they see older managers aren’t even curious with regard to the possibility that someone may suggest something that creates an ‘it just may work’ moment.

In the end … I like to remind people that success is contextual, situations and environment are constantly changing and ‘it just may work’ chances are also contextual. No one … not even the most brilliant business person in the world … can always envision every inevitable moment or aspect of a process. Far too often the travel of success is often best viewed as marbles rolling on a flat table … that is being rocked. It just may work then becomes dependent upon how well you can avoid, deflect and direct the marbles.

Uhm.

I would like to note that nothing in that last paragraph suggests predictability. Therefore. About the only thing I can predict about 99% of things discussed in business is ‘it just may work.’

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Written by Bruce