think global worldly

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 “You take the victories where you can. You make things a little bit better rather than a little bit worse. And that’s in no way a concession to this idea that America is withdrawing or there’s not much we can do. It’s just a realistic assessment of how the world works.”

 

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Obama

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Ok.

 

This is part 1 of a 2 part foreign policy overview.

The first is the Obama Doctrine and the second is the Trump doctrine. Both will incorporate aspects of both economics and security/military because they are intertwined <just as climate change and conflict is intertwined>.

 

I decided to publish them in tandem because I believe we are going to see a distinct contrast in styles as well as strategy.

 

change world and new

 

Simplistically, Obama has always had ‘the long game’ threaded thru everyone one of his actions as well as his decisions.

 

Trump appears to want to embody the Americanism ‘short game’ philosophy. To be clear … I am not in a panic or going into some hysterical diatribe … I am simply pointing out Trump’s business style extended out into how I perceive he will view foreign policy.

 

Americans have always been an impatient culture which has always threatened our Foreign Policy strategy. We have always been at our best when we have nuanced our short term desires and embraced the long view.

 

As any good business person will tell you this is difficult. We realize that great long term decisions have some negative repercussions in the short term. You may sacrifice some short term sales with the intent to box a competitor out or maximize the shifts of an industry.

 

It becomes incredibly difficult to manage and lead because short term things are always obvious and there will always be someone ‘Trump-like’ to be antsy to jump on the short term positives.

 

It becomes incredibly difficult to manage and lead because many long term decisions are nuanced and subtle and there will always be someone ‘Trump-like’ who is unable to see the nuances and subtlety.

 

Just as another example … ask any military commander how painful it is to know you are losing soldiers’ lives in a strategic retreat all the while knowing there is a win to be had as the battle and war unfolds.

These are the kind of difficult and nuanced choices we demand of leaders.

 

Obama is a perfect example of ‘the long game.’ To be clear … this doesn’t mean some short term decisions aren’t made and that sometimes by viewing the long game you do miss some short term opportunities. But, inevitably, while others judge the short term successes/failures like a scorecard it will be in the long term in which the final score is stated.

 

Where Obama has played this chess game the best is maybe versus the oriental-view-of-time-lewis-business-insiderChinese. And the Chinese have always played the ‘long game.’

 

I believe it was Zhou Enlai who answered President Nixon’s question, in 1972, about what he thought of the French revolution … “too early to tell.”

 

They are patient.  They mask intent in subtlety. And, most importantly, they understand that Americans like the obvious.

While we stare at quarterly sales reports, daily stock market indices, opinion polls and media coverage the Chinese stare at a future objective … with no end date attached to it. If they reach it in the next millennia it has met their objective.

 

To be clear … China is salivating over the Trump win and his ‘simplicity & obvious’ success criteria.

 

While Obama blocked China with calm, resolve and an ability to sacrifice a pawn to insure the king & queen maintain their place on the board, Trump will be irritated by losing even a pawn … so the Chinese will gladly irritate him.

 

And while Obama has done a fantastic job of marginalizing a marginal Russia China will inevitably seek to use Russia’s desires to be relevant to their advantage.

 

China will encourage Russia to maximize their natural resources <and possibly expand them … which has repercussions to Ukraine> and encourage Russia to do things to aggravate USA <and will offer to never leave the sidelines as they do so>.

 

If anyone doubts me on my scenario … just pick up a copy of The Art of War by Sun Tzu.

 

I purposefully pointed out what Russia and China wants to do and how they play the game to showcase the Obama Doctrine.

 

At the end of this piece I share a fabulous far too overlooked article written in The Atlantic called The Obama Doctrine.

 

It becomes relevant even more so today as we study the contrast between an Obama foreign policy and a Trump foreign policy.

 

The most striking thing you will read is that Obama thinks many of the same things Trump chooses to say.

And this is my point on the long game versus the short game.

 

Obama clearly has frustrations <other countries not doing enough, depending on America too much for the hard stuff, not paying enough as part of NATO> but understands the long game means swallowing some of the frustration for the longer game objective <USA as the centerpiece to global balance, security and economics>.

 

see the worldTrump does not appear to want to swallow the costs of America’s current role in the global balance. His intentions appear to be ‘let’s just shake the etch a sketch and see what happens’ banking on his big brain, knowledge of good words and negotiating skills to navigate America into a more prosperous position.

 

And he may very well do so.

 

And he may do so only because China, and Russia, permit him the short term ‘prospering’ because they recognize he is sacrificing the middle of the chess board.

 

Obama, like him or not, has never given up the center of the chess board no matter the short term cost.

 

Look.

 

I admit.

 

I do not understand Obama haters … nor do I understand Obama adorers.

Suffice it to say not everything a president does, any president, is wrong or ‘feckless’ just as not everything is perfectly right and ‘strong.’

 

I am not an expert.

And most likely not smart enough to truly understand the complexity of choices and repercussions.

 

I can clearly tell you the times I watched President Obama and was proud … and the moments I watched and was disappointed. But I can honestly say that throughout all moments and all judgements I have never doubted he was thoughtful, acting in what he saw as the best interests of the long term America & American people and understood the complexity of the situation.

 

I think a president’s job is complex .. especially with Foreign Policy.

 

I may not have always agreed with what was said & done … but that I understood.

 

That said.

 

Jeffrey Goldberg, a writer at The Atlantic and a recipient of the National Magazine Award for Reporting, published an article called “The Obama Doctrine” in The Atlantic.

 

 

It is a thoughtful, balanced assessment long read article providing some interesting insight into the mind of the president who has maybe been one of the most controversial global leaders in recent history and also possibly one of the most influential with regard to the future <it is up to you to judge whether that will be influencing good or bad>.

 

I will say one thing that I noted from the article as I read it.

I have a love/hate relationship with nuance. I like blunt directness and yet understand that reality more often than not resides in nuance.

 

Obama discusses the “leading from behind” criticism.

His point?

Inevitably USA sets the agenda on everything. From that point on it doesn’t matter who takes the lead as long as the agenda is completed.

 

Ah.

 

Does leadership get measured on strategy … or ‘doing’ <or some combination obama-sad-thoughtful-toughthereof>?

 

That, my friends, is a discussion which echoes throughout the hallways of schools, businesses and homes … and it echoes because no one has come up with a simple answer. Ponder that as you judge the actions of not only a president but your fellow workers & friends.

 

Suffice it to say … if you want a lesson on the friction between Americanism short term passion and Policy long game then study Obama. He was caught in the headlights of this battle. Time will tell whether he played the long game well or not.

 

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Written by Bruce